可再生能源电力装机技改潜力研究——以风光为例  

Research on the technical transformation potential of renewable energy power generation installed capacity--taking wind and photovoltaie power for example

作　　者：于延龙 刘建东 朱伟卿 张煜青 王心昊 YU Yanong;LIU Jiandong;ZHU Weiqing;ZHANG Yuqing;WANG Xinhao(China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute,Beijing 100120,China;Shanghai Treasure Carbon New Energy Environmental Protection Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200082,China;Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute Tsinghua University,Chengdu 610218,China;Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]水电水利规划设计总院,北京100120 [2]上海宝碳新能源环保科技有限公司,上海200082 [3]清华四川能源互联网研究院,四川成都610218 [4]清华大学,北京100084

出　　处：《中国高新科技》2024年第24期91-92,100,共3页

摘　　要：为实现碳达峰、碳中和目标,我国大力推动可再生能源发展,其中光伏发电、风电为重点发展的产业,截至2024年6月底,二者合计装机已超过煤电装机。随着时间推移,运行超过10年的机组及单机小容量机组逐步显现出较大的等容/扩容更新等技术改造需求。文章结合规划装机、实际装机的情况,分省测算风光新增装机量、技改量以及未技改量,开发“风光发电技改潜力模型”,综合判断可再生能源装机情况,输出考虑技改的装机水平及分布。To achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,China has been making great efforts to promote the development of renewable energy,with photovoltaic power and wind power being the key industries.At the end of June 2024,the total installed capacity of these two types of energy has exceeded that of coal power.As time goes by,generating units in operation for more than 10 years and small-capacity units are gradually showing a greater need for technological transformation,such as capacity maintaining or capacity expansion.This paper will calculate the new installed capacity,technical transformation capacity,and capacity without technical transformation of wind and photovoltaic power by province,considering both the planned installed capacity and the actual installed capacity.The"Technical Transformation Potential Model"is designed to comprehensively assess the installed capacity status of renewable energy,and output the level and distribution of technical transformation capacity.

关 键 词：可再生能源 风光发电 技改潜力模型 装机水平 技改分布 

分 类 号：TN305[电子电信—物理电子学]