基于改进SIR的内涝路网拥堵传播模型研究  

Research on congestion propagation model of waterlogged road network based on improved SIR

作　　者：林休玮 陈江宏 梁臣 俞宏熠 李慧颖 徐锦强 LIN Xiuwei;CHEN Jianghong;LIANG Chen;YU Hongyi;LI Huiying;XU Jinqiang(College of Transportation and Civil Engineering,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学交通与土木工程学院,福州350002

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期10-17,共8页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：福建省社会科学基金博士扶持项目(FJ2023BF115)。

摘　　要：为了研究内涝环境下路网拥堵的传播规律,提出SIR模型.从拥堵、微观非拥堵、宏观非拥堵三种状态,基于改进后的SIR模型建立了内涝路网拥堵传播模型.分析了参数易感率g、康复率k对于模型的影响,由此优化并标定了不同层面下参数g、k的表达式,使该模型能更准确模拟现实中的拥堵传播.以2022年5月19日清流县长兴北街与中街内涝路段为案例,借助Matlab生成易感车辆与感染车辆的散点图,生成了改进SIR模型后的内涝路网拥堵传播模型的函数图像,验证了该模型的合理性.内涝路网拥堵传播模型的建立有利于了解内涝下拥堵传播形成和疏散特性,为今后内涝下的交通管理和拥堵疏散提供了思路.In order to study the propagation law of road congestion in waterlogged environment,SIR Model was proposed.The congestion propagation model of waterlogging road network was established based on the improved SIR Model from three states of congestion,micro-non-congestion and macro-non-congestion.The influence of parameter susceptibility rate g and rehabilitation rate k on the model was analyzed,and the expressions of parameter g and k at different levels were optimized and calibrated,so that the model can better simulate congestion propagation in reality.Taking the waterlogged section of Changxing North Street and Middle Street in Qingliu County on May 19,2022 as an example,this paper generated scatter plots of susceptible and infected vehicles with the help of Matlab,and generated functional images of the congestion propagation model of waterlogged road network after the improved SIR Model,which verified the rationality of the model.The establishment of congestion propagation model of waterlogged road network was conducive to understanding the characteristics of congestion propagation and evacuation under waterlogging,and provided ideas for traffic management and congestion evacuation under waterlogging in the future.

关 键 词：SIR 内涝 拥堵传播 病毒模型 模型改进 MATLAB 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]