创造还是破坏:碳排放权交易与企业就业变动  

Creation or Destruction:Carbon Emissions Trading and Firms'Employment Dynamics

作　　者：霍启欣 方慧[2] HUO Qixin;FANG Hui(Shandong Agricultural University,271018;Shandong University of Finance and Economics,250002)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院(商学院),271018 [2]山东财经大学国际经贸学院,250002

出　　处：《财贸经济》2025年第1期151-168,共18页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“协同创新网络赋能制造业全球价值链攀升的机制与路径研究”(23CJL019)。

摘　　要：本文基于中国碳排放权交易试点的准自然实验,考察了碳排放权交易对企业就业变动的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,碳排放权交易能够同时提高中国企业就业创造率和就业破坏率,并且在两者耦合作用下促进企业就业净增长。机制检验表明,规模效应和低碳技术创新效应是碳排放权交易影响企业就业变动的重要渠道,但要素间替代或互补效应并未发挥作用。异质性分析发现,碳排放权交易对企业技术与管理人员、国有企业和高流动性碳市场企业就业净增长的促进效应更为显著。进一步研究表明,碳排放权交易激发了基于生产率差异的企业就业动态调整,导致低生产率企业的就业破坏,同时促进了高生产率企业的就业创造与就业净增长。研究结论为理解碳排放权交易与企业就业变动之间的关系提供了新的经验证据,对实现环境改善和就业增长的“双赢”具有启示意义。As a key policy tool for achieving China's Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals,carbon emission trading,while promoting energy conservation,emissions reduction,and low carbon development,has also impacted the established economic and social development patterns.Under the double pressures of advancing energy conservation and emissions reduction and ensuring employment stability,examining how carbon emission trading affects firms'employment dynamics is critical to improving the national carbon market system and achieving a balance between environmental protection and job creation.Using a quasi-natural experiment of China's carbon emission trading pilot and a Propensity Score Matching-Difference-in-Differences(PSM-DID)model,this study examines the effect of carbon emission trading on enterprise employment dynamics and how.It finds that carbon emission trading simultaneously increases both employment creation and destruction rates,leading to net employment growth through the combined effects.Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the scale effect and the low-carbon technological innovation are the primary channels driving these changes,while inter-factor substitution or complementarity has little influence.Heterogeneity analysis finds that the net employment growth benefits are more pronounced for technical and managerial personnel,state-owned enterprises,and firms with high mobility in the carbon market.Additionally,the research shows that carbon trading leads to job destruction in low-productivity firms while promoting job creation and net employment growth in high-productivity firms.The study has the following policy recommendations.First,efforts should be accelerated to establish a unified,standardized,and efficient national carbon market while leveraging the carbon trading mechanism to achieve the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals and promote high-quality economic and social development.Secondly,it is necessary to strengthen the research and application of low-carbon technologies,promote the green a

关 键 词：碳排放权交易 企业就业变动 就业创造 就业破坏 低碳技术创新 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]