长三角公路货运碳排放因素解析和情景模拟  

Influencing Factor Analysis and Scenario Simulation of CO_(2) Emissions from Road Freight Transportation in the Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：王任勇 熊强 诸立超[3] WANG Renyong;XIONG Qiang;ZHU Lichao(Zhejiang Expressway Co.,Ltd,Hangzhou 310016,China;School of Management,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;School of Management,Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江沪杭甬高速公路股份有限公司,杭州310016 [2]合肥工业大学管理学院,合肥230009 [3]浙江财经大学,管理学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《综合运输》2025年第1期9-14,共6页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助项目;浙江省自然科学基金。

摘　　要：作为中国经济最发达的地区之一,长三角公路货运碳减排对其他地区具有很强的指导意义。本文利用基于“自上而下法”的分配模型,测算2000—2019年长三角公路货运碳排放,并构建偏最小二乘回归模型,解析各类因素对长三角公路货运碳排放的影响,进而模拟不同情景下的碳排放量。结果表明,长三角公路货运碳排放从798万t增长至7390万t,年均增幅达12.43%。此外,社会经济特征对长三角公路货运碳排放具有显著的促进作用,远高于其他因素;相比之下,货运供需特征中起主要作用的依次为公路营运货车数(促进)、公路货物周转量占比(促进)和柴油价格(抑制)。情景模拟结果显示,长三角公路货运碳排放在2030年前实现碳达峰难度很大,需要采用大力度的综合措施。As one of the most economically developed regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta's CO_(2) emission reduction from road freight transportation has strong guidance for other regions. This paper employed a "top-down" approach to estimate the CO_(2) emissions of road freight transportation in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2019. A partial least squares regression model was constructed to analyze the impact of various factors on CO_(2) emissions from road freight transportation in the region. The model was further used to simulate the CO_(2) emissions from road freight transportation in 2030 under different scenarios. The results show that CO_(2) emissions from road freight transportation in the Yangtze River Delta increase from 7.98 million tons to 73.90 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 12.43%. Additionally, socialeconomic characteristics have a significant promoting effect on CO_(2) emissions from road freight transportation,which is much higher than other factors. In contrast, the main influencing factors of freight supply and demand characteristics are, in order, the number of road freight vehicles in operation(promoting), the proportion of road freight turnover(promoting), and diesel price(inhibiting). Scenario simulation results indicate that it will be very difficult for the CO_(2) emissions from road freight transportation in the Yangtze River Delta to peak by 2030, and comprehensive strong measures will need to be adopted.

关 键 词：货运碳排放 公路货运 影响因素 自上而下法 偏最小二乘回归 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程]