基于系统动力学的物流无人机市场发展预测研究  

Logistics UAV Market Development Forecast Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：刘光才[1] 张军波 李章萍[1] LIU Guangcai;ZHANG Junbo;LI Zhangping(Transportation Science and Engineer College,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《综合运输》2025年第1期135-142,共8页China Transportation Review

基　　金：天津市教委资助项目:通用航空发展规律及其监管模式研究(2020SK049)。

摘　　要：物流无人机作为一种全新的配送模式,其市场发展是一个动态复杂的过程。通过对国内城市无人机配送发展现状和研究成果的分析,选取经济人口发展、社会物流需求和公众使用意愿三方面的影响因素,利用2017—2022年的相关统计数据,构建物流无人机市场发展的系统动力学模型,并通过参数调整仿真模拟未来的发展动向。结果表明:未来的一定年限内,物流无人机数量、全国周转快递包裹总量均呈现出增长态势,且公众使用意愿、物流需求量、技术研发投资呈现出由高到低的影响程度,可以为政府制定政策和发展规划作参考。As a brand new distribution mode,the market development of logistics drones is a dynamic and complex process.The article analyzes the current situation and research results of the development of domestic urban drone delivery,selects the influencing factors of economic and demographic development,social logistics demand and public willingness to use,and constructs a system dynamics model for the development of the logistics drone market by using the relevant statistical data from 2017-2022,and simulates the future development trend through parameter adjustment simulation.The results show that the number of logistics drones and the total amount of national turnover express parcels show growth in a certain number of years in the future,and the public's willingness to use,logistics demand,and investment in technology research and development show a degree of influence from high to low,which can be used as a reference for the government to formulate policies and development planning.

关 键 词：物流无人机 城市配送 市场预测 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济]