江苏省雪灾对越冬作物和设施农业的影响研究和风险区划  

Snow disaster effect and risk assessment of overwintering crops and facility agriculture in Jiangsu

作　　者：朱敬宜 江晓东 蔡仕博 邱璟怡 吴洪颜[5] ZHU Jingyi;JIANG Xiaodong;CAI Shibo;QIU Jingyi;WU Hongyan(School of Applied Meteorology/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agrometeorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Shuyang Meteorological Bureau,Jiangsu Suqian 223600,China;Dinghai Meteorological Bureau,Zhejiang Zhoushan 316000,China;Yinzhou Meteorological Bureau,Zhejiang Ningbo 315100,China;Jiangsu Meteorological Observation,Nanjing 210008,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院/江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044 [2]沭阳县气象局,江苏宿迁223600 [3]鄞州区气象局,浙江宁波315100 [4]定海区气象局,浙江舟山316000 [5]江苏省气象台,南京210041

出　　处：《气象科学》2024年第6期1163-1170,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划专项资助项目(2022YFD2300202);江苏省气象局科研资助项目(KM202101);江苏省设施农业和越冬作物雪灾风险评估(SQ202507)。

摘　　要：为探究雪灾对江苏省越冬作物和设施农业的危害程度及分布规律,本文利用1978—2020年江苏省71个国家级气象观测站逐日最低温度、积雪深度等气象资料,数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model, DEM)数据,以及小麦、油菜和设施农业生产相关的社会经济资料,使用层次分析法与CRITIC法相结合的方法(Analytic Hierarchy Process-CRITIC)构建江苏省雪灾对越冬作物和设施农业的风险评估模型,进行雪灾风险等级划分。结果表明:江苏省降雪过程最低温度由西北向东南递减,积雪日数由西向东逐渐减少,最大积雪深度与距海洋距离呈正相关;雪灾高风险地区集中在淮北西部,较高风险地区为江淮之间地区的西部,中风险地区分布在淮北和江淮之间地区的中部及苏南西部,低风险和较低风险地区分布在沿海和苏南东部地区。In order to explore the damage degree and distribution law of snow disaster on overwintering crop and facility agriculture in Jiangsu Province,the daily meteorological data,such as the minimum temperature and snow depth of 71 national meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province from 1978 to 2020,the DEM elevation data,the socioeconomic data related to wheat,rape and facility agriculture were used.A risk assessment model for overwintering crops and facility agriculture by AHP-CRITIC and other methods was constructed and the snow disaster risk level was classified.Results show that the lowest temperature in snow days decreases from northwest to southeast.The number of snow cover days decreases from west to east.The maximum snow depth was positively correlated with the distance from the ocean.The snow disaster highest risk areas are concentrated in west part of the northern Huaihe River while the high risk areas are in the western region between Yangtze River and Huaihe River.Central part of the northern Yangtze River and west of southern Jiangsu are medium risk areas.Low-risk areas are distributed in coastal area and east of southern Jiangsu.

关 键 词：雪灾 风险评估 越冬作物 设施农业 江苏 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]