基于树状高斯过程的综合能源系统低碳经济规划全局敏感性分析  

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Low-carbon Economic Planning for Integrated Energy System Based on Treed Gaussian Process

作　　者：张吉强 胡丹妮 孙勇[2] 霍玉佼 王悦[3] 朱丽 ZHANG Jiqiang;HU Danni;SUN Yong;HUO Yujiao;WANG Yue;ZHU Li(College of City Construction,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,Jiangxi Province,China;Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Sustainable Energy Center,Tianjin University,Nankai District,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Architecture,Tianjin University,Nankai District,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学城市建设学院,江西省南昌市330022 [2]天津大学亚太经合组织可持续能源中心,天津市南开区300072 [3]天津大学建筑学院,天津市南开区300072

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2025年第1期13-23,共11页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：江西省自然科学基金资助项目(20232BAB214072);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ2200359);国家自然科学基金项目(52308125)。

摘　　要：综合能源系统低碳经济规划受多重不确定因素影响,如何有效识别关键影响因素对系统规划优化至关重要。基于此提出了一种综合能源系统低碳经济规划影响要素全局敏感性分析方法。首先,构建一个包含电、热、冷等多能流耦合的综合能源系统拓扑结构。其次,分别以系统等效年成本和二氧化碳年排放量最小为优化目标,建立综合能源系统混合整数线性规划模型。然后,根据系统设备特性和市场环境筛选26个不确定因素,分别对其概率表征和分层抽样,求得不同样本对应的低碳经济规划结果。最后,采用树状高斯过程方法对影响系统低碳经济规划的不确定因素进行全局敏感性分析。通过算例验证了所提方法能够高效准确识别影响综合能源系统规划的关键不确定因素。The low-carbon economic planning of the integrated energy system(IES)is influenced by multiple uncertain factors,and how to effectively identify key uncertain influencing factors is crucial for system optimization.A global sensitivity analysis method for the impact factors of low-carbon economic planning of IES is proposed.Firstly,an IES system topology structure including multiple energy flow coupling such as electricity,heating,and cooling is constructed.Secondly,the IES mixed integer linear programming models with the optimization objectives of minimizing the equivalent annual cost and carbon emissions of the system are established.Then,based on the characteristics of system equipment and market environment,26 uncertain factors are screened,and their probability characterization and stratified sampling are carried out to obtain low-carbon economic planning results corresponding to different samples.Finally,the treed Gaussian process(TGP)method is used to conduct a global sensitivity analysis on uncertain factors affecting the low-carbon economic planning of the IES.The proposed method is verified through examples to efficiently and accurately identify the key uncertain factors affecting the planning of the IES.

关 键 词：综合能源系统 低碳经济规划 全局敏感性分析 多重不确定性 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]