美国技术封锁对中国技术型跨境并购的影响  

The impact of US technology blockade on Chinese high-tech cross-border M&As

作　　者：马述忠[1] 李诗燕 吴鹏 MA Shu-zhong;LI Shi-yan;WU Peng(China Academy of Digital Trade,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国数字贸易研究院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江财经大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《科学学研究》2025年第1期38-48,共11页Studies in Science of Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD084)。

摘　　要：本文基于证券数据公司全球并购(SDC M&A)数据库,运用DID方法探究美国技术封锁对中国向第三方经济体技术型跨境并购的影响。研究发现:美国对华技术封锁总体上促进了中国向第三方经济体实施技术型跨境并购,这一结论在变换识别策略、变换样本、伪证检验等一系列稳健性检验后以然成立。机制分析表明,美国技术封锁刺激了中国投资者向高可替代性或与中国高技术部门联系密切的经济体的技术型跨境并购,因此可以认为技术封锁带来的替代效应大于消极示范效应。此外,东道国与美国的政治经济关系并不构成美国技术封锁影响中国向第三方经济体技术型并购的重要因素。异质性分析发现,美国技术封锁显著促进了中国在电信软件和医疗领域对第三方经济体的跨境并购,但在能源和交通领域的影响不显著。In March 2018,the United States released a report on the“301 investigation”,accusing China of unfair technology transfer,offshore investment and other behaviors that infringe on the interests of U.S.companies.Since then,the number of Chinese cross-border mergers and acquisitions(M&As)in the United States has rapidly declined,while in contrast,Chinese M&As in other countries have skyrocketed in enthusiasm.We wonder whether the opposite trend in the number of Chinese cross-border M&As to the U.S.and to other countries is related to the U.S.technology blockade.The M&A data in this paper comes from the Securities Data Corporation's Global Mergers and Acquisitions(SDC M&A)database,which has been widely used in various domestic and foreign investment M&A studies.We obtain a total of 5,037 M&A transaction data from 2009-2021.We use the 2018 U.S.301 Investigative Report as the basis,combined with the U.S.classification of high-technology industry categories,and set 24 subsectors such as semiconductors,software,and communications categories out of the 78 industries in the SDC M&A database as the treatment group,and the other industries as the control group.We then construct a DID model to quantitatively assess the impact of the U.S.technology blockade on China's technology-based M&As to other countries.The study finds that the U.S.technology blockade against China generally facilitates China's technology-based cross-border M&As to third-party economies,a finding that holds true after a series of robustness tests,such as changing the identification strategy,changing the sample,and falsification tests.The mechanism analysis suggests that the U.S.technology blockade stimulates technology-based cross-border M&As by Chinese investors to economies that are highly substitutable or closely linked to China's high-technology sector,and thus it can be argued that the substitution effect brought by the technology blockade outweighs the negative demonstration effect.In addition,the host country's political and economic relations w

关 键 词：技术型跨境并购 技术封锁 双重差分 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]