全球生产网络演化内生机制与中国角色  

Endogenous Mechanism of Global Production Network Evolution and China’s Role

作　　者：高录问 干春晖 余红心 GAO Luwen;GAN Chunhui;YU Hongxin(College of Business,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Regional Modernization Institute,Anhui Academy of Social Sciences,Hefei 230053,China;Institute of Applied Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China;Business Economics College,Shanghai Business School,Shanghai 200235,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学商学院,上海200433 [2]安徽省社会科学院区域现代化研究院,安徽合肥230053 [3]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200020 [4]上海商学院商务经济学院,上海200235

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2025年第1期60-73,共14页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“以全球城市为核心的巨型城市群引领双循环发展研究”(22&ZD067);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题青年项目“区域转移视角下数字经济赋能上海高端制造业的创新路径研究”(2023EJB011);安徽省社会科学院博士基金项目“国际产业链供应链重构背景下安徽产业链供应链风险识别与应对策略研究”(AASS2407)。

摘　　要：基于2000—2021年全球97个经济体3198种中间品贸易数据,构建全球生产网络,采用时间指数随机图模型(TERGM),探究网络演化内生机制,并依据内生机制对中国在全球生产网络演化中的角色进行深入分析。研究表明:第一,非互惠结构的互惠效应、两路径结构的传递闭合效应和星型结构的马太效应是全球生产网络演化内生机制;第二,中国通过构建互惠结构和发挥第三方市场的作用在全球生产网络演化中承担重要角色,并且在承担中介角色引致的传递闭合效应下,坦桑尼亚、新西兰和巴拿马等经济体将在集成电路领域拓展出口市场。因此,中国需率先成为生产合作关系的“发出者”,充分利用在全球生产网络中“桥梁”地位的优势,建立国内进出口企业信息交流平台,构建多元稳定的贸易格局,保障产业链稳定。Building diversified and stable trade relations is a crucial measure to ensure the security of China’s industrial chains.With the rapid development of globalization production patterns characterized by intra-product specialization,the internal structure of global production networks has gradually become more complex.As an important medium for transmitting market information,the complex network structure of production networks not only accelerates the speed of information transmission but also reduces errors in information dissemination,thereby helping to break down information barriers among economies within the production networks.So,does the existing complex structure within global production networks facilitate economies in expanding new cooperation partners and forming diversified and stable production cooperation relationship?In other words,does the evolution of global production networks possess an endogenous mechanism?This has emerged as an important research topic.Based on trade data for 3198 intermediate goods across 97 economies worldwide from 2000 to 2021,this article constructs a global production network and employs a Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM)to explore the endogenous mechanisms of network evolution.Furthermore,it conducts an in-depth analysis of China’s role within the framework of these endogenous mechanisms.The research reveals the following findings:Firstly,the reciprocal effect of non-reciprocal structures,the transitive closure effect of two-path structures,and the Matthew effect of star-shaped structures constitute the endogenous mechanisms driving the evolution of the global production network.Secondly,China plays a significant role in the evolution of the global production network by constructing reciprocal structures and leveraging the role of third-party markets.Additionally,due to the transitive closure effect arising from China’s intermediary role,economies such as Tanzania,New Zealand,and Panama are expected to expand their export markets in the field of integ

关 键 词：全球生产网络 中间品贸易 网络演化内生机制 生产合作关系 互惠效应 传递闭合效应 马太效应 产业链稳定 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]