行业税负、生产网络与宏观经济  

Industry Tax,Production Network and Macroeconomics

作　　者：陈秀茂 潘士远[2] 任晓猛 Chen Xiumao;Pan Shiyuan;Ren Xiaomeng(School of Economics;Center for Research of Private Economy;Research Center for Regional Coordinated Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院 [2]浙江大学民营经济研究中心 [3]浙江大学区域协调发展研究中心、中国西部发展研究院,杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2025年第2期4-19,155,共17页Zhejiang Social Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(项目编号:2023YFB3308401)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文构建了一个资本价格外生的生产网络模型,量化评估行业税负变化对宏观经济的影响。在生产网络中,行业税负变化不仅能够直接影响行业自身发展,也能够影响下游行业生产,还能够影响整体经济对中间产品和资本的需求。实证结果显示,2007—2020年中国行业税负变化有效提高了全要素生产率与资本总量,进而增加了总消费和总产值。本文进一步比较了对不同行业进行减税的财政成本和经济成效,发现对第二产业进行减税能以最低的财政成本获得最显著的经济成效,主要原因是对第二产业进行减税更能带动下游行业和中间产品行业生产。本文的研究结论为中国以制造业为重点的结构性减税政策提供了理论支撑。This paper constructs a production network model with exogenous capital prices to quantitatively assess the impact of changes in industry tax burdens on macroeconomics.In the production network,tax change can not only directly promote the development of the industry itself but also drive production in downstream industries and influence the overall economy’s demand for intermediate products and capital.Empirical results show that China’s tax reduction policies have effectively increased total factor productivity and the total capital stock,thereby boosting total consumption and output from 2007 to 2020.Furthermore,this paper compares the fiscal costs and economic effects of tax reductions across different industries and finds that reducing taxes for secondary industries achieves the most significant economic benefits with minimal fiscal cost.This is because tax cuts in these sectors more effectively stimulate production in downstream and intermediate product industries within the network.The paper’s conclusion can provide theoretical foundation for China’s structural tax reduction policy focusing on manufacturing.

关 键 词：生产网络 行业税负 结构性减税 

分 类 号：F81[经济管理—财政学]