美国贸易政策的逻辑与中美经贸关系走势——特朗普内阁对华贸易政策展望  

Logic of U.S.Trade Policy and Trend of U.S.-China Economic and Trade Relations:Trump's Outlook on China Policy

作　　者：王孝松[1] 杨航 WANG Xiaosong;YANG Hang(Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易》2025年第1期5-16,46,共13页Intertrade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“共建‘一带一路’进程中贸易与投资协同发展研究”(23VRC012)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：中美关系是当今全球范围内最重要的双边关系。中美建交多年以来,中美经贸关系经历了从合作共赢到战略遏制的复杂转变。2024年11月,唐纳德·特朗普再次在美国大选中胜出,即将二度入主白宫。特朗普在上任之际,大肆鼓吹增加关税,为中美经贸关系增添了不确定性。美国贸易保护政策的逻辑是以维护美国自身国家利益为根本目的,受到国内政治体制特点驱动,由自身经济运行规律决定并以特别国际地位维护自身贸易霸权,而美国贸易保护政策的嬗变受到全球价值链的催化加速作用。美国贸易政治发展至今,已经形成了基于国会立法权力和总统及政府机构的行政权力组成的一系列贸易政策工具箱,用以打压我国。在这一背景下,我国即将面临出口承压,对我国构建新发展格局提出更高要求。同时,中美脱钩风险增大,大国博弈常态化、持久化呼唤我国发展新质生产力。对此,我国应合理调整国内经贸政策、积极推动对外投资和产业链延伸、加强维护多边贸易体制、持续扩大中国对外贸易影响力。The U.S.-China relations are the most important bilateral relations on a global scale today.Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the U.S.,the economic and trade relations between the two countries have evolved from one characterized by win-win cooperation to a more complex one marked by strategic containment.In November 2024,Donald Trump won the U.S.presidential election again and was poised to assume the presidency for a second term.Upon taking office,Trump trumpeted increased tariffs,adding significant uncertainties to the U.S.-China economic and trade relations.The logic of the U.S.trade protection policy is to maintain its own national interests as its fundamental purpose.This policy is driven by the characteristics of the U.S.domestic political system,shaped by the laws of its economic operations,and aimed at preserving its trade hegemony with a special international status.The evolution of U.S.trade protection policy is further accelerated by the dynamics of the global value chain.Over time,the process of U.S.trade politics has developed a comprehensive toolbox of trade policies,leveraging the legislative power of Congress and the executive power of the President and government agencies to suppress China.In this context,China faces increasing export pressures and heightened demands to establish a new development pattern.Simultaneously,the increased risk of U.S.-China decoupling and the normalization and persistence of the great power game underscore the need for China to develop new quality productive forces.In response,China should rationally adjust its domestic economic and trade policies,actively promote outward investment and industrial chain extension,strengthen its commitment to maintaining the multilateral trading system,and continuously enhance the global influence of its foreign trade.

关 键 词：中美经贸关系 关税政策 贸易保护 贸易的政治经济学 

分 类 号：F757.12[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.7[经济管理—产业经济]