中国与“一带一路”共建国家数字服务贸易潜力分析  

Analysis of the Potential of Digital Service Trade Between China and the Belt and Road Initiative Countries

作　　者：孙玉琴[1] 赵亚娟 SUN Yuqin;ZHAO Yajuan(University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《国际贸易》2025年第1期58-71,共14页Intertrade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“‘丝绸之路经济带’沿线国家基础设施建设与贸易便利化的经济增长效应研究”(17BJL060)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：数字服务贸易作为中国同“一带一路”共建国家服务贸易发展的新引擎,其影响因素及贸易效率值得深入探析。文章基于随机前沿引力模型,采用2007—2021年中国和147个“一带一路”共建国家数据,分析双边数字服务贸易的影响因素,并进一步测算贸易效率、潜力和扩展空间。研究结果表明:中国和“一带一路”共建国家的经济发展水平对双方数字服务贸易具有显著促进作用,而人口规模和地理距离则抑制双边数字服务贸易发展;互联网用户渗透率、政府效率指数、是否签订含数字贸易条款的协定、数字服务贸易开放程度等因素能够显著降低贸易非效率,而政府治理水平指数却对非效率项具有正向作用;中国和“一带一路”共建国家数字服务贸易的效率整体不高但潜力很大,当前数字服务贸易扩展空间最大的是非洲地区,其次是南美洲地区。文章的研究结果能够为进一步促进我国同“一带一路”共建国家数字服务贸易发展及贸易格局优化提供参考。Digital service trade is a new engine driving the development of trade in services between China and the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries,and its influencing factors and trade efficiency warrant in-depth analysis.Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model,this paper examines the influencing factors of bilateral digital service trade using data from China and 147 BRI countries from 2007 to 2021.It further calculates trade efficiency,potential,and expansion space.The results indicate that the levels of economic development in both China and the BRI countries significantly enhance bilateral digital service trade,while population size and geographical distance hinder its development.Factors such as Internet user penetration rate,government efficiency index,the presence of agreements with digital trade clauses,and the openness index of digital service trade significantly reduce trade inefficiency.In contrast,the government governance level index has a positive effect on the inefficiency term.The overall efficiency of digital service trade between China and the BRI countries is relatively low,but there is substantial potential for growth.Currently,the largest room for expansion in digital service trade lies in Africa,followed by South America.The findings of this study provide valuable insights into further promoting the development of digital service trade and optimizing trade patterns between China and the BRI countries.

关 键 词：数字服务贸易 一带一路 贸易效率 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752.68[经济管理—国际贸易] F125[经济管理—产业经济] F113