中国造林增汇潜力及成本有效性——基于经济可行与社会最优视角的再审视  

Forestation for Carbon Sequestration in China:A Reexamination from the Perspectives of Economic Feasibility and Social Optimality

作　　者：汪宗顺 杨红强[2] 张寒[1] WANG Zongshun;Yang Hongqiang;ZHANG Han

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨陵712100 [2]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2025年第2期111-125,共15页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国造林碳汇潜力、成本有效性与生态补偿机制研究”(编号:72473111);国家社科基金重大项目“碳中和全球治理主要挑战与国际合作的中国方案研究”(编号:23&ZD103);国家重点研发计划青年科学家项目“黄土高原人地系统耦合机制与系统调控途径研究”(编号:2022YFF1302200);中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科项目“秦岭国家公园体制机制建设研究”(编号:2452023305);陕西省自然科学基金项目“黄土高原土地利用净碳排放效率演变驱动机制及提升路径研究”(编号:2024ZC-YBXM-177)。

摘　　要：造林增汇是应对气候变化的重要手段。在经济可行与社会最优视角下,中国造林增汇潜力如何以及是否具有成本有效性需要重新审视。本文基于遥感影像数据,构建造林决策模型,分别从经济可行和社会最优视角出发,对中国可造林区域进行识别,并对中国造林增汇的潜力及成本有效性进行评估。研究发现,(1)中国满足自然可行的造林面积为6657.57万公顷,但其中仅有15.34%和57.07%的土地满足经济可行和社会最优条件。(2)在社会最优条件下,造林活动将每年提供1.34亿吨二氧化碳的碳汇边际增量,但其对碳中和目标实现的贡献率仅为9。56%~14.84%。而从经济成本与社会成本看,造林碳汇的边际成本分别为31.55~242.73元/吨二氧化碳和95.45~1419.33元/吨二氧化碳。在当前碳价下,无法由市场自发引致社会最优的造林增汇潜力。(3)相比于区域碳减排路径,中国造林增汇整体上具有成本有效性,但区域间差异较大,其中再造林比新造林具有更高的增汇强度和更低的碳汇成本,成为中国造林增汇的主要方向。据此,本文提出不同地区实现碳中和的最优路径选择。本文为中国造林增汇潜力和成本有效性测算提供新的视角,也为强化造林增汇对碳中和贡献提供参考。Forestation for carbon sequestration is an important way to address climate change.From the perspectives of economic feasibility and social optimality,it is necessary to reevaluate the potential and cost-effectiveness of forestation for carbon sequestration in China.This study constructs a forestation decision model based on remote sensing imagery data and identifies forestation areas in China from the perspectives of economic feasibility and social optimality.Furthermore,the potential and costeffectiveness of forestation for carbon sequestration in China are assessed.This paper finds that:(1)Based on natural feasibility,total land area suitable for afforestation in China is estimated to be66.57 million hectares.However,only 15.34%and 57.07%of this land area meet the criteria for economic feasibility and social feasibility.(2)Under the conditions of social optimality,forestation activities are projected to provide a marginal increment of 134 million tons of carbon dioxide per year.However,their contribution to achieving carbon neutrality gonls is estimated to be only between 9.56%and 14.84%.Regarding economic cost and social cost,the marginal cost of forestation carbon sinks is 31.55~242.73 yuan per ton of CO,and 95.45~1419.33 yuan per ton of CO_(2),respectively.Given the current carbon price,it is not possible for the market to spontaneously induce the social optimal potential of forestation carbon sinks.(3)From a cost-effectiveness perspective,forestation for carbon sequestration in China is generally considered cost-effective compared to regional carbon emission reduction pathways.However,there are significantvariations among different regions.And reforestation exhibits higher carbon sequestration intensity and lower sequestration costs compared to afforestation,making it the primary focus for carbon sequestration efforts through forestation in China.Based on this,it is suggested to choose optimal pathways for achieving carbon neutrality in different regions.This paper provides a new perspective for measuring

关 键 词：中国造林 增汇潜力 成本有效性 经济可行 社会最优 

分 类 号：S72[农业科学—林木遗传育种]