瑕瑜互现:回溯次贷危机美国房地产市场风险处置经验与教训  

A Look at the Subprime Crisis and the Lessons Learned from the Risk Management Experience in the U.S.Real Estate Market

作　　者：董士君 彭龙 DONG Shijun;PENGLong(China Institute of Finance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics and Management,Southeast University)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究院 [2]东南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2024年第12期107-119,共13页Financial Market Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目:“民营企业扶持政策与企业创新决策:作用路径与影响因素研究”(71974019)。

摘　　要：房地产行业投资规模较大、产业链条较长,房地产市场的周期性波动往往会对宏观经济运行造成显著影响。近年来,我国经济步入高质量发展阶段,房地产行业正在不断调整建立“人、房、地、钱”要素联动的行业发展新机制。此时,研究美国房地产市场在次贷危机后的复苏历程,或将为国内未来一段时期内房地产行业乃至宏观经济的发展提供借鉴与参考。回溯次贷危机后美国房地产市场及龙头企业的恢复过程,本文提出以下政策参考:(1)房地产行业属于强周期性行业,房地产开发商重视自身杠杆率与现金流的合理管控是保障行业长期平稳健康发展的基本前提。(2)市场“无形的手”与政府“有形的手”同等重要,即使在行业下行期,也要重视充分发挥市场的作用。(3)通过财政刺激托底经济总需求是危机期间的必要之举,长期需转变发展方式,做大做强实体经济以摆脱对“地产投资拉动经济增长”的路径依赖。The real estate sector,with its large investment scale and long industrial chain,has had an outsized impact on the macroeconomy.It also is highly cyclical,and over the years its cyclical fluctuations have had a corresponding influence on the nation's economic performance.In recent years,however,China's economy has entered the stage of high-quality development,and the real estate sector has had to adjust by establishing a new development mechanism that more closely coordinates four critical factors:people,housing,land and money.In this new phase of development,it is useful to examine the U.S.real estate market in the wake of the subprime crisis as a reference for the domestic industry in China.This paper makes a number of recommendations that reflect the experience of the period after the U.S.subprime crisis.This paper concludes that real estate developers need to ensure they have adequate controls over leverage and cash flow levels to ensure stable long-term growth.It is also important that the"invisible hand"of the market and the"visible hand"of the government have equal importance,even during market downturns.This is essential to creating a bigger and stronger economy that avoids heavy dependence on real estate-driven growth.

关 键 词：房地产泡沫 经济周期 次贷危机 新发展模式 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]