基于气象因子的松墨天牛成虫发生期预测  

Prediction of the adult stages of Monochamus alternatus based on meterological fators

作　　者：付文健 杨伟[2] 唐婷 巫山 刘素容 唐亮东 FU Wenjian;YANG Wei;TANG Ting;WU Shan;LIU Surong;TANG Liangdong(Chongzhou Planning and Natural Resources Bureau,Chongzhou 611230,China;Forest Conservation Laboratory of Forestry College,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;Chongzhou Meteorological Bureau,Chongzhou 611230,China;Chengdu Forestry and Grassland Pest Contral and Quarantine Station,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]崇州市规划和自然资源局,四川崇州611230 [2]四川农业大学林学院森林保护实验室,四川成都611130 [3]崇州市气象局,四川崇州611230 [4]成都市林业和草原有害生物防治检疫站,四川成都610041

出　　处：《四川林业科技》2025年第1期91-96,共6页Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology

摘　　要：为了准确掌握松墨天牛成虫的发生期(成虫始见期、始盛期、高峰期和盛末期),科学组织松墨天牛防控,以2017年至2022年间在四川省崇州市诱捕记录数据与对应的前一年内气象因子数据(旬平均最高气温、旬平均最低气温、旬平均气温、旬平均降水量、旬平均相对空气湿度)作为研究对象,并分析了成虫发生期与这些气象因子之间的相关性。通过逐步回归分析获得了预测模型,并使用2023年的数据进行验证确定最终模型。结果表明,在允许±3 d误差范围内计算时,该模型对松墨天牛各个发生期(始见期、始盛期、高峰期和盛末期)的预测精度达96.4%,具有较高的准确性。In a bid of scientifically scheming the tasks of controlling the intensity of M.alternatus popularity,the prediction models for four adult stages,those were the onset,the incipient peak,the peaking season and the last maximum,were originally figured out under the method of stepwise regression analysis with the logs originated from the trapped M.alternatus over the years of 2017-2022 and from the meteorological factors(average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature,average temperature,average precipitation and average relative air humanity)in each early-month,mid-month and late-month occured contemporarily in Chongzhou City,Sichuan Province,China.Then,the models were established after being checked out with the relative data in 2023.The experimental results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model for four adult stages reached 96.4%within the permitted range of the tolerance deviations±3 d,which had high accuracy.

关 键 词：松墨天牛 预测模型 气象因子 逐步回归分析 

分 类 号：S763.38[农业科学—森林保护学]