2010―2020年中国其他感染性腹泻病的流行病学分析  

Epidemiological analysis of other infectious diarrhea diseases in China from 2010 to 2020

作　　者：翟雪艳 高洪朱 莫颖宁[3] ZHAI Xueyan;GAO Hongzhu;MO Yingning(Department of Pharmacy,School of Pharmacy,Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Jinan 250355,China;Department of Pharmacy,Huaiyin People′s Hospital,Jinan 250021,China;Scientific Research Office,School of Health Management,Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Jinan 250355,China)

机构地区：[1]山东中医药大学药学院药学系,济南250355 [2]山东省济南市槐荫人民医院药剂科,济南250021 [3]山东中医药大学卫生管理学院科研办公室,济南250355

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2025年第1期34-41,共8页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：山东省中医药调研课题(ZYY202275);山东省重点研发计划(软科学项目)(2020RKB14183)。

摘　　要：目的分析中国其他感染性腹泻病在2010―2020年的时空流行特点,并预测2021年1—12月发病人数,为其他感染性腹泻病的预防提供参考。方法使用描述性流行病学和空间自相关分析方法,分析其他感染性腹泻病流行病学特征,结果由ArcGIS 10.8软件进行可视化呈现,构建季节性差分自回归移动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)模型,进行短期预测。结果2010―2020年中国其他感染性腹泻病发病人数为11269993人,死亡人数为214人,年平均报告发病率为19.45/10万。每年均有夏、冬季2个发病高峰,冬季高峰有后移趋势。发病人数中男、女比为1.31∶1.00,发病年龄以0~<5岁为主,主要分布在散居儿童、农民和学生中。空间自相关分析结果显示,局部有聚集性特征,“高-高”聚集区为河北省、山东省、天津市、广东省。SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)_(12)预测模型显示,我国其他感染性腹泻病在2021年1―12月发病人数持续增加,双季节高峰特征仍存在。结论浙江省、广东省等东南沿海地区的其他感染性腹泻病发病率较高,SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)_(12)模型拟合效果较好,在其他感染性腹泻病高发季节,应结合不同地区时空流行特征,加大对高发人群的监测与防控。Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of other infectious diarrheal diseases in China between 2010 and 2020,and to predict the number of incidence in January-December 2021,in order to provide a reference for the prevention of the diseases.Methods Descriptive epidemiology and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics,and the results were visualized by ArcGIS 10.8 software.A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model was constructed to make short-term prediction.Results From 2010 to 2020,the number of cases of other infectious diarrheal diseases in China was 11269993 and the number of deaths was 214,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 19.45/100000 per year.There are two peaks of incidence in summer and winter every year,with a clear trend of backward shift of the peak in winter.The majority of the incidence occur in children aged 0-<5 years old.The disease is mainly distributed among scattered children,students and farmers.Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there were obvious localized clustering characteristics(P<0.05),and the"high-high"clustering areas included Hebei,Shandong,Tianjin,and Guangdong.The SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)_(12)prediction model showed that there will be a significant increase in the number of cases in the period of January to December 2021,and the bi-seasonal peak characteristics remained significant.Conclusions The incidence of other infectious diarrhea in the southeast coastal areas such as Zhejiang Province and Guangdong Province is relatively high,and the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)_(12)model has a good fitting effect.During other high incidence seasons of infectious diarrhea,it is necessary to combine the spatiotemporal epidemic characteristics of different regions and increase monitoring and prevention of high incidence population.

关 键 词：其他感染性腹泻病 流行病 空间分析 季节性差分自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R211[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]