中国艾滋病发病和死亡的循环周期特征与非线性预测  

Characteristics of the cyclical cycle and non-linear prediction of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome incidence and mortality in China

作　　者：刘超[1,2] 白莎莎 韩敏 董梦琪[1] 张娟娟 LIU Chao;BAI Shasha;HAN Min;DONG Mengqi;ZHANG Juanjuan(Department of Statistics,Hebei University,Baoding 071000,China;Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Public Health Security,Hebei University,Baoding 071000,China;Department of Preventive Medicine,School of Public Health,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学统计学系,保定071000 [2]河北省公共卫生安全重点实验室,保定071000 [3]河北大学公共卫生学院预防医学系,保定071002

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2025年第1期55-60,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(23ARK004)。

摘　　要：目的 分析中国艾滋病(acquired immunodeficiency syndrome,AIDS)发病和死亡的波动规律,揭示其循环周期特征,并预测短期内中国AIDS发病和死亡的情况。方法 基于Census X-3季节调整法,分析中国2004年1月―2024年2月AIDS发病和死亡的季节特征,在剔除季节因素影响后,使用霍德里克-普雷斯科特(Hodrick-Prescott,HP)滤波法剖析AIDS发病和死亡的循环周期特征,并借助非线性回归分析模型预测中国2024年3―12月AIDS的发病和死亡情况。结果 中国AIDS发病和死亡数持续增加,各年份AIDS的发病和死亡具有季节性和趋势性变动特征,发病高峰期集中于每年的9―10月,死亡高峰期集中于每年的7―8月。中国AIDS的发病和死亡在2004年1月―2024年2月大致分为4个完整的循环周期,平均循环周期长度为60个月,且循环周期振动幅度不稳定。AIDS的发病和死亡随时间变化的关系曲线呈倒“U”型。结论 中国AIDS发病和死亡的循环周期变长,预测结果显示中国AIDS发病和死亡将呈下降趋势,应密切关注AIDS流行情况,并积极采取防范与控制措施。Objective To analyze the fluctuation pattern of the incidence and mortality of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS) in China,reveal its cyclical characteristics and predict short-term trends.Methods Based on Census X-13 seasonal adjustment method,we analyzed the seasonal characteristics of China′s AIDS incidence and mortality from January 2004 to February 2024.In addition,the cyclical characteristics of AIDS incidence and mortality were analyzed using the Hodrick-Prescott(HP) filter method after removing seasonal influences.Furthermore,the AIDS incidence and mortality from March to December 2024 were predicted using a nonlinear regression model.Results The number of AIDS cases and deaths in China has been continuously increasing.Annual data exhibited a significant seasonal and trend variations,with peak incidence occurring in September-October and peak mortality in July-August.From January 2004 to February 2024,AIDS cases and deaths have revealed four complete cycles,each averaging 60 months in length,with unstable amplitude.The relationship between cases and deaths over time have formed an inverted "U" shape.Conclusions The cyclic cycle AIDS incidence and mortality in China have become longer.Predictions indicate a future downward trend in both incidence and mortality,so we should pay close attention to the epidemic situation of AIDS,and actively take preventive and control measures.

关 键 词：艾滋病 发病 死亡 循环周期特征 非线性预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]