2011―2020年中国内地城镇劳动力人口死亡趋势及影响因素相关性研究  

Trend on mortalities among the urban labor force population in China mainland from 2011 to 2020 and the correlation study of influencing factors

作　　者：李博 郝晓红 郭淑赟 董茹心 车琳星 雷立健 LI Bo;HAO Xiaohong;GUO Shuyun;DONG Ruxin;CHE Linxing;LEI Lijian(Epidemiology Teaching and Research Office,School of Public Health,Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan 030001,China;Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Yingze District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Taiyuan 030001,China)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,太原030001 [2]太原市迎泽区疾病预防控制中心传染病防控科,太原030001

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2025年第1期117-121,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

摘　　要：目的 分析2011―2020年中国内地城镇劳动力人口死亡趋势及其影响因素。方法 采用Joinpoint回归模型分析我国内地城镇劳动力人口死亡率变化趋势;采用灰色关联分析法评价就业单位类型、劳动力人口结构(年龄、性别、学历)、工作时间、烟酒消费、空气主要污染物、交通事故死亡人数、快递业务量等因素与主要死因死亡趋势的关联强度。结果 2011―2020年城镇劳动力人口标化死亡率呈下降趋势;前5位死因死亡率均呈下降趋势;心脏病年龄别死亡率35~<40岁组呈上升趋势。长时间工作与恶性肿瘤(r=0.923)、心脏病(r=0.946)、脑血管病(r=0.929)、损伤和中毒(r=0.919)标化死亡率关联度最强;大气一氧化碳(carbon monoxide,CO)日均值浓度与呼吸系统疾病标化死亡率关联度最强(r=0.904)。结论 2011―2020年中国内地城镇劳动力人口死亡率总体呈下降趋势;长时间工作已成为中国内地城镇劳动力人口健康状况最大的隐患。Objective To analyze the mortality trend and influencing factors of urban labor force population in China mainland from 2011 to 2020.Methods The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of mortality rate in urban labor force population in China's Mainland.Grey correlation analysis was used to evaluate the correlation strength between the type of employment unit,labor force demographic structure(age,gender,education),working hours,tobacco and alcohol consumption,major air pollutants,traffic accident fatalities,and express delivery business volume and the trend of major causes of death.Results From 2011 to 2020,the standardized mortality rate of urban labor force population in China showed a downward trend.The standardized mortality rate of top five causes of death showed a downward trend.The mortality rate of heart disease in the 35-<40-year-old group is on the rise.The results of influencing factor analysis showed that long-term work was strongly associated with malignant tumors(r=0.923),heart disease(r=0.946),cerebrovascular disease(r=0.929),injury and poisoning(r=0.919) standardized mortality.The daily mean concentration of atmospheric carbon monoxide(CO) was strongly associated with standardized mortality from respiratory diseases(r=0.904).Conclusions From 2011 to 2020,the mortality rate of urban labor force population in China mainland generally shows a downward trend,but the mortality rate of heart disease in the 35-<40 age group increases year by year.Long working hours has become the biggest hidden danger to the health of China mainland′s urban labor force.

关 键 词：死亡率 劳动力人口 Joinpoint回归 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学] R195[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]