石羊河流域水资源-粮食-能源-生态系统耦合协调发展  

Coupling and Coordinated Development of Water Resources-Food-Energy-Ecosystem in Shiyang River Basin

作　　者：侯慧敏[1] 马海华 王鹏全 王万祯 HOU Hui-min;MA Hai-hua;WANG Peng-quan;WANG Wan-zhen(School of Energy and Power Engineering,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Qinghai University for Nationalities,Xining 810007,China;Water Resources Utilization Center of Shiyang River Basin,Water Resources Department ofGansu Province,Wuwei 733000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学能源与动力工程学院,兰州730050 [2]青海民族大学土木与交通工程学院,西宁810007 [3]甘肃省水利厅石羊河流域水资源利用中心,甘肃武威733000

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第2期16-22,共7页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：甘肃省水利科研与计划项目(22GSLK036,22GSLK037,23GSLK044,23GSLK045,23GSLK046)。

摘　　要：为探究石羊河流域水资源-粮食-能源-生态(WFEE)系统协调可持续发展,避免单一资源的部门割裂式发展对其他资源部门造成危害,以西北内陆河流域之一的石羊河流域WFEE系统为研究对象,构建流域WFEE系统耦合协调评价指标体系,采用CRITIC赋权法对各子系统指标赋权,运用耦合协调度模型对石羊河流域WFEE协调发展水平及其时空演变特征进行研究,并对2020—2030年石羊河流域耦合协调度进行预测。结果表明:2000—2020年石羊河流域WFEE系统综合发展指数处于中等水平,能源子系统综合发展指数负增长;石羊河流域WFEE系统耦合度等级为高水平耦合;流域WFEE系统耦合协调度整体呈上升趋势,经历了轻度失调到良好协调共6个阶段;预测结果显示流域耦合协调度在预测期内处于良好协调向优质协调过渡阶段。研究成果可为石羊河流域的可持续管理和资源高效开发利用提供参考依据。To investigate the coordinated and sustainable development of the water resources-food-energy-ecosystem(WFEE)in the Shiyang River Basin and mitigate the negative impacts from the development of a single resource sector on other resource domains,we established a coupling and coordination evaluation index system for the WFEE system of the northwest inland Shiyang River Basin as a case study.The CRITIC method was employed for the weighting of subsystem indicators,and the coupling coordination degree model was adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the coordination degree of Shiyang River Basin’s WFEE from 2020 to 2030.Results demonstrate that the comprehensive development index of the Shiyang River Basin’s WFEE system from 2000 to 2020 was at a moderate level,with the energy subsystem showing a negative growth trend.The WFEE system of Shiyang River Basin has undergone six stages,from mildly disordered to well coordinated,displaying an upward trend.The prediction results suggest that the basin will remain a well-coordinated growth trend during the forecast period from 2020 to 2030.These findings provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management and efficient development and utilization of the Shiyang River Basin.

关 键 词：水资源-粮食-能源-生态(WFEE)系统 CRITIC赋权法 综合发展指数 耦合协调度 石羊河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]