叶尔羌河流域水文气象要素演变规律及其与水力发电量的关联度分析  

Change Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Elements in the Yarkand River Basin and Their Correlations with Hydroelectric Power Generation

作　　者：梁树超 翟保豫 李国庆 徐志 李子安 赵宇 彭旺 LIANG Shu-chao;ZHAI Bao-yu;LI Guo-qing;XU Zhi;LI Zi-an;ZHAO Yu;PENG Wang(Electric Power Science Research Institute of State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830011,China;State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830011,China;Nanjing Nanrui Water Resources and Hydropower Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 211106,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]国网新疆电力有限公司电力科学研究院,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]国网新疆电力有限公司,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]南京南瑞水利水电科技有限公司,南京211106 [4]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第2期23-28,61,共7页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179016);长江设计集团有限公司自主科研项目(CX2019Z10)。

摘　　要：为解析叶尔羌河流域水文气象要素的演变规律及其与水力发电量的关联度,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和最大互信息系数等多种方法详细研究了流域各项水文气象要素的趋势性、突变性及其与水力发电量的关联度。结果表明:1960—2017年流域降水量、气温和径流量均呈显著上升趋势,蒸散发和风速则显著下降。其中洪水期的降水和径流上升趋势为0.49 mm/a和0.86 mm/a,是枯水期的4.1倍和2.4倍。气温和径流在所有季节均呈现显著上升趋势,蒸散发显著上升趋势主要体现在夏季和秋季。除风速外其他要素在20世纪90年代附近均出现了突变年份,其中降水量存在多个突变年份。水力发电量与径流量直接相关,而径流量又与积雪、气温和土壤温度等相关,当气温升高时冰雪融化加速,导致径流增大,从而提高水力发电量。This study aims to analyze the trends and abrupt changes in hydrometeorological variables in the Yarkand River basin and their correlations with hydroelectric power generation.Various analytical methods,including the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Maximum Mutual Information Coefficient,were employed to investigate these aspects over the period from 1960 to 2017.Findings indicated that precipitation,temperature,and runoff exhibited significant increasing trends during this period,whereas evapotranspiration and wind speed showed notable decreases.Specifically,the upward trends in precipitation and runoff were more pronounced during the flood period,with rates of 0.49 mm/year and 0.86 mm/year,respectively,approximately 4.1 and 2.4 times those of the dry period.Seasonal analysis revealed significant upward trends in temperature and runoff across all seasons.Notably,significant increases in evapotranspiration were primarily observed during summer and autumn.Except from wind speed,abrupt changes in these hydrometeorological elements were detected around the 1990s,with multiple shift points observed in precipitation data.Hydropower generation was found to be directly linked to runoff,which is influenced by factors such as snowpack,air temperature,and soil temperature.As temperature rises,snow and ice melt accelerates,leading to increased runoff and consequently higher hydropower generation capacities.

关 键 词：叶尔羌河流域 趋势分析 最大互信息系数 气候变化 水力发电 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]