基于多源降雨数据的中游城市群极端降雨特征和风险分析  

Characterization and Risk Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Yangtze River Midstream Urban Agglomerations Based on Multi-Source Rainfall Data

作　　者：龚莉[1,2] 张翔[1,2] 罗蔚 陶士勇 GONG Li;ZHANG Xiang;LUO Wei;TAO Shi-yong(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;China Railway Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330029,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学海绵城市建设水系统科学湖北省重点实验室,武汉4300723 [3]中铁水利水电规划设计集团有限公司,南昌330029

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第2期83-90,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(41890823);中国中铁股份有限公司科技研究开发计划项目(2021-重大-08,2022-重大-08)。

摘　　要：长江中游城市群是位于我国中部的特大型城市群,在经济社会发展中发挥着重要作用。为探究变化环境下中游城市群的降雨特征和风险,对CMFD、MSWEP和CN05.1这3种降雨数据在中游城市群的适用性进行了评估,选择中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集CMFD进行降雨特征分析,同时考虑强降雨量、暴雨日数、高程、坡度、人口、土地利用对区域城市化快速发展前后暴雨灾害风险进行分析。结果表明:包括省会城市在内的高度城市化区域在过去的40 a短历时暴雨发生频率和强度增加,城市群南部强降雨量、暴雨日数存在显著增长趋势,包括江西省新余、抚州、南昌、九江等区域;随着城市化的进程,人口向中心城市聚焦,中高暴雨风险区域增加,环鄱阳湖都市圈中高风险区占比明显增加。为应对区域暴雨风险,需集成多学科多部门城市监测数据,推进高精度多尺度监测-预报-预警系统研发与应用,加强城市化对局地气候和极端降雨影响的机理研究,协调灰-绿-蓝措施以增强城市气候适应性和韧性。The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is a mega city cluster located in the central part of China,playing a crucial role in economic and social development.To explore precipitation characteristics and risks in this urban agglomeration in changing environment,we evaluated the applicability of three precipitation datasets:CMFD,MSWEP,and CN05.1,and selected the CMFD(China Meteorological Forcing Dataset)for analysis.We analyzed the changes in rainstorm hazard risks before and after the rapid urbanization by considering factors such as rainstorm amount,rainstorm duration,elevation,slope,population,and land use.Findings reveal that highly urbanized areas,particularly provincial capital cities,have experienced more frequent occurrences and higher intensities of short-duration rainstorms over the past four decades.The amount and duration of rainstorms in the southern part of the urban agglomeration increased significantly,affecting cities like Xinyu,Fuzhou,Nanchang,and Jiujiang in Jiangxi Province.With the progression of urbanization,populations have concentrated in central cities.Consequently,medium-and high-risk areas for rainstorms have increased,especially in the Poyang Lake Metropolitan Area.To effectively manage and mitigate the risks associated with regional rainstorms,we recommend the following measures:integrate multidisciplinary and multidepartment urban monitoring data to gain a comprehensive understanding of precipitation patterns and their impacts;promote research,development,and application of high-precision multiscale monitoring-forecasting-warning systems to enhance early warning capabilities;strengthen research on the mechanisms of urbanization affecting local climate and extreme rainfall events;coordinate grey(infrastructure),green(natural systems),and blue(water bodies)measures to enhance the climate adaptation and resilience of cities.

关 键 词：城市化 极端降雨特征 风险分析 中游城市群 CMFD 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]