水电站工程安全监测仪器服役时变模型  

Time-varying Service Models of Safety Monitoring Instruments for Hydropower Projects

作　　者：童广勤 耿峻 郑栋 陈子寒 张弛 薛奕超 TONG Guang-qin;GENG Jun;ZHENG Dong;CHEN Zi-han;ZHANG Chi;XUE Yi-chao(River Basin Complex Administration Center of China Three Gorges Corporation,Yichang 443134,China;Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司流域枢纽运行管理中心,湖北宜昌443134 [2]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,武汉430010

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第2期155-164,共10页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0704180);长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司科研项目(CX2020Z06)。

摘　　要：水电站工程安全监测仪器服役时长和时变特性,是影响工程安全监测设计、实施和运行管理的核心因素之一,然而国内外却鲜有对于安全监测仪器服役时变规律的研究。收集了我国10个水电站工程安全监测仪器服役表现的实际大样本数据,总结其重要时间节点,统计其监测仪器总失效率,揭示了安全监测仪器失效率的时变规律。结果表明:①施工期,7个工程监测仪器失效率增量模型符合正态函数,6个工程监测仪器失效率增量先增后减,拐点出现在施工期的51%~84%处;3个工程失效率持续上升。②运行期,工程监测仪器失效率均呈平稳上升趋势,符合线性模型。提出的安全监测仪器服役时变模型均能有效预估各工程安全监测仪器失效率变化情况。The service time and time-varying characteristics of safety monitoring instruments in hydropower projects are critical factors affecting the design,implementation,and operational management of engineering safety monitoring.However,there is limited research on the time-varying behavior of these instruments both in China and abroad.In this study we collected actual large-sample data on the service performance of safety monitoring instruments from ten hydropower projects in China.Important time nodes for the ten projects were summarized,and the total failure rates of monitoring instruments in each project were calculated,revealing the time-varying patterns of failure rates.Results indicate that:1)During the construction phase,the failure rate increment model of monitoring instruments in seven projects follows a normal distribution,with the failure rate increment in six projects initially increasing and then decreasing.The inflection point occurs at 51%-84%of the construction period.The failure rate of monitoring instruments in three projects consistently increased throughout the construction phase.2)During the operational phase,the failure rates of monitoring instruments exhibited a steady upward trend,conforming to a linear model.The time-varying models proposed in this paper effectively predict the changing failure rates of safety monitoring instruments in hydropower projects.

关 键 词：水电站工程 安全监测仪器 仪器完好率 仪器服役时变特性 仪器服役时变模型 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]