2010—2021年山东滨州市农业碳排放特征与畜禽养殖承载力评估  

Characterization of agricultural carbon emissions and assessment of land-carrying capacity of livestock and poultry in Binzhou City

作　　者：肖建勇 刘月仙 代雅男 XIAO Jianyong;LIU Yuexian;DAI Yanan(Sino-Danish College,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Binzhou Institute of Technology,Binzhou 256606,China;School of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 101314,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学中丹学院,北京100049 [2]滨州魏桥国科高等技术研究院,山东滨州256606 [3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京101314

出　　处：《农业环境科学学报》2025年第1期235-246,共12页Journal of Agro-Environment Science

基　　金：魏桥国科低碳技术专项(GYY-DTFZ-2022-026)。

摘　　要：为从县域角度剖析典型农业地区的农业碳排放特征,本研究采用排放因子法对山东省滨州市的种植业与畜禽养殖业的主要碳排放源进行农业碳排放核算,分析了2010—2021年间滨州市农业碳排放量变化情况以及各区县的农业碳排放结构。结果表明:2010—2021年全市总的农业碳排放量呈现波动式下降并在2020年达到最低水平,为211.96万t CO_(2)当量,年均降幅1.64%。农业碳排放量较高的阳信、惠民与无棣县,不仅年均农业碳排放量与碳排放强度较高,而且在农业碳排放结构方面存在养殖业碳排放占比高的问题。研究进一步从畜禽粪污消纳的土地承载角度对滨州市畜禽养殖现状与潜力进行评估,结果表明惠民县畜禽养殖承载潜力最高,为469.06万头猪当量(以磷计),有较大的养殖业发展潜力;而阳信县目前处于超载状态,耕地无法消纳超量的畜禽粪尿资源,畜禽承载指数为1.53,对环境有严重影响。We used the emission factor method to analyze the characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in agricultural regions from a county perspective,in Binzhou City,Shandong Province,whose main sources of carbon emissions are agriculture and animal husbandry.Herein,the changes in agricultural carbon emissions in Binzhou City and the structure of agricultural carbon emissions during 2010—2021 were analyzed.The results demonstrated that the total agricultural carbon emissions fluctuated and declined,reaching their lowest level in 2020(2119600 t of CO_(2) equivalent),with an average annual decline of 1.64%.The counties of Yangxin,Huimin,and Wudi,which have higher rates of carbon emissions from agricultural activities,higher average annual agricultural carbon emissions and carbon intensity,and a high proportion of carbon emissions due to farming,closely related to the local agricultural structure.Additionally,the potential of livestock and poultry raising in Binzhou City from the perspective of land-carrying capacity was also evaluated.The results showed that Huimin County had the highest potential for animal husbandry carrying(4690600 pig equivalents,phosphorus-based index).Yangxin County was found to be in an overloaded state,with an index of 1.53,indicative of serious environmental impacts.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 碳排放强度 土地承载力 化肥替代潜力 滨州市 

分 类 号：X71[环境科学与工程—环境工程]