基于可靠性理论的导管架平台抗台策略  

A Failure Probability Calculation Method Based on Reliability Theory for Jacket Platforms under Typhoon Conditions

作　　者：张天明 李林斌[1] 徐辉 刘圆 ZHANG Tian-ming;LI Lin-bin;XU Hui;LIU Yuan(Offshore Engineering Technical Center,China Classification Society,Tianjin 300450,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船级社海洋工程技术中心,天津300450

出　　处：《船海工程》2025年第1期105-110,共6页Ship & Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42176241,U20A20327);工信部极地船舶专项(CBG2N21-2-3)。

摘　　要：为保证台风环境下的人员安全,科学评估平台的实际状态,提出一种采用可靠性理论的导管架平台抗台策略。以平台自身结构能力为基础,通过设定人员撤离的临界波高,将平台所在海域的波浪长短期分布进行卷积积分,得到平台在台风等极端海况情况下有人时的结构失效概率。根据定量评估的风险水平,将平台划分为安全、警告、严重警告、危险4个抗台阶段,据此平台作业者根据可接受标准制定相应的人员撤离及应急预案,并以南海导管架平台为例开展抗台计算分析,结果表明,基于可靠性的抗台分析方法能够在保证人员安全的前提下,减少抗台费用,为在役海洋平台在极端环境下的应急响应提供技术支持。In order to ensure personnel safety in typhoon environments and scientifically evaluate platform status,an innovative analysis method based on reliability theory was proposed to calculate jacket platforms failure probability under extreme conditions such as typhoons.Based on the structural capability of the platform itself,by setting the critical wave height for personnel evacuation,the long-and short-term distribution of waves in the sea area where the platform was located was convolution integral,to obtain the structural failure probability of the platform under extreme sea conditions such as typhoon.According to the risk level of quantitative assessment,the platform was divided into four anti-typhoon stages:safety,warning,severe warning,and danger,so that the operator can formulate corresponding personnel evacuation and emergency plans according to acceptable standards.Taking the South China Sea jacket platform as an example,the anti-typhoon calculation and analysis were carried out.The research showed that this method could reduce costs for typhoon prevention while ensuring personnel safety.It’s can provide technical support for platform operators in extreme conditions.

关 键 词：导管架平台 结构失效概率 可靠性理论 波浪分布 

分 类 号：U661.4[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] P751[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]