碳达峰目标下中国省际碳配额的两阶段分配模型  

Two-stage Allocation Model of Carbon Quota for Provinces in China Based on the Carbon Peak Goal

作　　者：李芳 赵越 陈向南 LI Fang;ZHAO Yue;CHEN Xiangnan(School of Business,Changzhou University,Changzhou 213159,China;Suzhou Academy of Social Sciences,Suzhou 215004,China;Business School,Jiangsu Open University,Nanjing 210036,China)

机构地区：[1]常州大学商学院,江苏常州213159 [2]苏州市社会科学院,江苏苏州215004 [3]江苏开放大学商学院,江苏南京210036

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2025年第2期92-105,共14页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“碳转移视域下我国省际碳补偿机制研究”(22CJY031)。

摘　　要：公平合理的区域间碳配额分配是碳排放权交易市场有效运行的前提。为提高分配方案的科学性和可接受度,尝试建立“预分配—优化调整”的两阶段碳配额初始分配模型。首先,综合考虑平等、责任、能力和高效原则,建立碳配额初始预分配模型。其次,从满意度、效率性和公平性三个角度出发,对预分配方案进行判别及进化调整,得到优化分配方案。2030年中国省际碳配额优化分配结果表明:各地区经济发展具有不平衡性,不同地区对分配原则的偏好性不同,采用单原则难以实现公平合理的碳配额分配;预分配方案可能难以被各地区接受,基于两阶段分配模型得到的碳配额分配方案能有效保障碳配额平稳安全、易于让各地区接受且兼顾了效率与公平;将中国省际碳配额的优化分配方案与各地区2030年碳排放相比,发现河北、山东、江苏、山西、内蒙古等省份作为传统的能源省份,减排压力较大,这些地区在未来的碳排放权交易市场中应占据更大的份额。最后,提出政府可以将碳配额分配机制作为促进区域协调发展的政策工具,应制定科学合理的碳配额分配方案,协调碳配额分配的效率性和公平性、各地区应根据各自减排压力和经济社会发展情况,探索低碳发展的模式。Fair and reasonable inter-regional carbon quota allocation is the prerequisite for the effective operation of the carbon emission trading market.Carbon quota allocation schemes should consider efficiency while adhering to the principle of fairness,attempt to establish a two-stage initial carbon quota allocation model of“pre-allocation-optimization and adjustment”.Firstly,based on the principles of equity,accountability,capability,and efficiency,an initial pre-allocation model is established for inter-provincial carbon quotas.Subsequently,from the perspectives of satisfaction,efficiency and fairness,the pre-allocation scheme is discriminated and adjusted evolutionarily to obtain the optimal allocation scheme.The optimal allocation of carbon quota of China in 2030 show that:the economic development of various regions is unbalanced,and different regions have different preferences for the allocation principles.It is difficult to achieve fair and reasonable carbon quota allocation by adopting a single principle.The pre-allocation scheme may be difficult to be accepted by all regions.The carbon quota allocation scheme based on the two-stage optimization model can effectively ensure the stability and security of carbon quota,easy to be accepted by all regions,and considering efficiency and fairness.Comparing the optimal allocation plan with the carbon emissions of various regions in 2030,it is found that Hebei,Shandong,Jiangsu,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,as traditional energy provinces,have greater pressure in emission reduction,and these provinces should occupy a larger share in the future carbon emission trading market.Finally,it is proposed that the government can take the carbon quota allocation mechanism as a policy tool for promoting coordinated regional development.Scientific and reasonable carbon quota allocation schemes should be formulated,coordinating the efficiency and fairness of the allocation schemes.Each region should explore the mode of low-carbon development in accordance with its own emission reduction

关 键 词：碳达峰目标 碳配额分配 两阶段模型 满意度 效率与公平 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]