低碳城市试点政策是否抑制制造业就业?——基于异质性多期双重差分模型的研究  

Does Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy Discourage Manufacturing Employment:Based on a Heterogeneous Multi-period Double-difference Modeling

作　　者：刘莹 LIU Ying(Institute of Strategic Research for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Guangdong Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510070,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省科学院粤港澳大湾区战略研究院,广东广州510070

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期39-46,共8页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：广东省科学院打造综合产业技术创新中心行动资金项目(2022GDASZH-2022030601)。

摘　　要：通过异质性多期双重差分模型评估低碳城市试点政策对制造业就业的影响,结果显示政策总体上抑制了城市碳排放并促进了制造业就业。2010年和2017年的政策效果显著,分别增加了0.0574%和0.1365%的制造业就业人数;2012年的政策效果不显著,对制造业就业人数也无显著影响。全要素生产率在政策效应与制造业就业之间起到了正向中介作用。基于此,建议应逐步推进环境规制,同步实施缓冲政策,保护员工权益;推动企业转型、拓宽就业渠道,为失业员工提供再培训和就业援助或鼓励创新创业。A heterogeneous multi-period double-difference model is used to assess the impact of the low-carbon city pilot policy on man-ufacturing employment,and the results show that the policy generally suppresses urban carbon emissions and promotes manufacturing employment.The policy effects in 2010 and 2017 are significant,increasing manufacturing employment by 0.0574%and 0.1365%,respectively;the policy effect in 2012 is not significant and has no significant effect on manufacturing employment.Total factor produc-tivity plays a positive mediating role between policy effect and manufacturing employment.Based on this,it is suggested that environ-mental regulation should be promoted gradually,and buffer policies should be implemented simultaneously to protect the rights and in-terests of employees;expanding the channels for enterprise transformation and employment,providing retraining and employment assis-tance for unemployed employees or encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship.

关 键 词：制造业 就业 异质性多期双重差分模型 中介效应 低碳政策 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济] F407[经济管理—国民经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]