“李光耀之问”与东北亚“二元格局”的终结  

"Lee Kuan Yew's Question"and The End of the"Dual Structure"in Northeast Asia

作　　者：钟飞腾 ZHONG Feiteng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院地区安全研究中心

出　　处：《国家安全论坛》2024年第6期3-19,95,共18页National Security Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“百年变局与中国周边安全新态势研究”(课题批准号:23&ZD331)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：日韩与中美之间在安全与经济关系上相互分离的局面能否持久可以概括为“李光耀之问”。回顾近年来日韩两国对华经贸关系的变化、日韩围绕美国对华战略博弈的地缘政治辩论以及地区安全形势变化,不难看出,与流行10多年的东亚“二元格局”论不同,自2019年开始日韩两国在经贸上已经出现明显的“疏远中国、靠拢美国”的状况,在安全上则从2017年开始不断加大与美国的安全合作力度,并日益在美国的压力下加大军费支出,导致地区紧张局势有所加剧。在美国将中国视为“最大战略竞争对手”之后,日韩对华经贸关系还有可能进一步疏远,因而东北亚地区的所谓“二元格局”或将走向终结。The question of Japan and South Korea about the durability of the separation between China and the United States in terms of economic and security relations can be summarised as the‘Lee Kuan Yew question'.Reviewing the changes in the economic and trade relations between South Korea and Japan with China in recent years,the geopolitical debates between South Korea and Japan around the strategic game between China and the United States,as well as the changes in the regional security situation,it is not difficult to see that,Unlike the'Dual Structure'theory of East Asia,which has been popular for more than 10 years,Japan and South Korea have been clearly'alienating China and getting closer to the United States'in economic and trade affairs since 2019.In terms of security,they have been increasing their security cooperation with the United States since 2017,and have been continuously increased their military spending under pressure from the United States,which has led to an increase in regional tensions.Japan and South Korea are likely to further weaken their economic and trade relations with China after the United States regards China as its‘biggest strategic competitor',and thus the so-called'Dual Structure'in Northeast Asia may come to an end.

关 键 词：李光耀之问 二元格局 战略竞争 军费开支 贸易关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]