基于综合评价指数的塔里木盆地荒漠化风险评估  

Risk assessment of desertification in Tarim Basin based on Comprehensive Evaluation Index

作　　者：席磊 冯益明[1,2,3] 戚曌 曹晓明 丁杰[1,2,3] 崔梦淳 XI Lei;FENG Yiming;QI Zhao;CAO Xiaoming;DING Jie;CUI Mengchun(Institute of Ecological Protection and Restoration,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China;Institute of Desertification Studies,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China;Key Laboratory of State Forestry and Grassland Administration on Desert Ecosystem and Global Change,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院生态保护与修复研究所,北京100091 [2]中国林业科学研究院荒漠化研究所,北京100091 [3]荒漠生态系统与全球变化国家林业和草原局重点实验室,北京100091

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第3期1126-1136,共11页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：第三次新疆综合科学考察课题(2021xjkk0304)。

摘　　要：荒漠化是当今人类所面临的区域性生态环境威胁之一,其发生常伴随林地生产力下降、土地资源丧失、生物多样性丧失、土壤固碳能力减弱等一系列生态环境退化问题,进而导致土地地力低下。环塔里木盆地作为荒漠化问题突出的生态脆弱区,易受到自然因素和人为因素的双重影响,及时准确地监测并评估荒漠化风险是防治荒漠化的基础和前提。单一的评估方法在荒漠化风险评估中均有一定的局限性,主客观结合法可以提升荒漠化风险评估精度。研究基于“三因子”理论,通过建立包括气候条件、人类活动、荒漠化监测现状等3类16个指标评价体系,利用主客观结合的熵组合权重法构建了荒漠化风险综合评价指数(Comprehensive Evaluation Index, CEI),并对环塔里木盆地的荒漠化风险进行评估。结果显示:(1)三因子权重分析显示:暴露性因子权重最高,脆弱性因子权重最低;(2)环塔里木盆地西部地区的荒漠化危险性小于东部地区,危险性、脆弱性和暴露性较高的区域集中在绿洲外围,原生荒漠区危险性较低,绿洲边缘地区较易发生荒漠化;(3)环塔里木盆地区域的荒漠化风险主要呈现为极低风险,高风险和极高风险区呈狭长、零稀分布,主要分布在绿洲边缘和居民点工矿用地区,原生荒漠区的荒漠化风险较低。高风险以及极高风险区仅占总体面积的3.0%;(4)基于地理探测器探究环塔里木盆地区域内人类活动和环境因素对荒漠化风险程度空间分异的影响结果显示:单因素分析方法显示土地利用类型(0.68)是主要的驱动因素;双因素交互分析方法显示各因素之间主要以非线性增强为主。影响最大的组合为:土地利用类型∩载畜量(0.78)和耕地面积∩载畜量(0.78),荒漠化风险程度主要受人为因素影响。合理的土地利用规划、禁止随意丢荒和耕地扩张以期实现耕地的集约高效经营,是荒漠�Desertification is one of the regional ecological threats facing humanity today,and its occurrence is often accompanied by a series of ecological and environmental degradation issues,such as declining productivity of forested land,loss of land resources,loss of biodiversity,and weakening of the soil′s carbon sequestration capacity,which in turn leads to reduced land fertility.As an ecologically fragile area with prominent desertification problems,the Tarim Basin is susceptible to both natural and anthropogenic factors,and it is the basis and prerequisite to monitor and assess desertification risks accurately for combating desertification.However,the single assessment method has certain limitations in desertification risk assessment,and the combination of subjective and objective methods can improve the accuracy of desertification risk assessment.This study established 16 index evaluation systems,including climate conditions,human activities and desertification monitoring status based on the“three⁃factor”theory,and constructed a Comprehensive Evaluation Index(CEI)of desertification risk by using the entropy⁃weight method combining subjective and objective factors,then the risk of desertification around Tarim Basin was evaluated.The results showed that:(1)Three⁃factor weight analysis showed that the exposure factor had the highest weight and the vulnerability factor had the lowest weight.(2)The western area around the Tarim Basin had lower desertification risk than the eastern area.The areas with higher risk,vulnerability and exposure were concentrated in the periphery of the oasis,and the risk of primary desert areas was lower,and the desertification edge area was more likely to occur.(3)The desertification risk in the area around the Tarim Basin was mainly very low risk.The high⁃risk areas were narrow,long,and sparsely distributed,mainly at the edge of oases and industrial and mining areas of residential areas.The desertification risk in primary desert areas was relatively low,and high⁃risk and ex

关 键 词：荒漠化 风险评估 环塔里木盆地 综合评价指数 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]