考虑社会-经济-生态损失的重大水电工程系统可持续性分析  

Sustainability analysis of hydropower megaproject system incorporating the social⁃economic⁃ecological losses

作　　者：井沛然 盛金保[2] 胡铁松[1] 郭利丹[3] 董凯 JING Peiran;SHENG Jinbao;HU Tiesong;GUO Lidan;DONG Kai(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,南京210029 [3]河海大学商学院,南京211100

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第3期1184-1198,共15页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52179022);国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3005400);中央公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Y723001)。

摘　　要：重大水电工程可持续开发运行是流域水资源可持续管理的重要组成。因此,如何量化工程建设运行所造成的多重损失对重大水电工程系统可持续性的影响是关键科学问题。提出了一种考虑社会-经济-生态损失的可持续性能值评估模型(ESMSEEL),将水电开发运行造成的社会损失、经济损失和生态系统服务损失作为能值分析的关键组分集成到能值核算账户中。以三峡工程为研究对象,对1993-2022年30年间三峡工程系统可持续性的时间演变规律与特征进行综合评价与对比分析。结果表明:1)入库径流化学势能(2.77×10^(24)sej)和能值损失(1.48×10^(24)sej)是三峡工程系统的主要投入项,分别占能值总投入的52.1%和27.9%。防洪功能产生了显著的社会经济效益(1.27×10^(24)sej),占能值总产出的35.2%。2)移民安置补偿、运行期水污染、鱼类生物多样性损失和泥沙淤积是三峡工程的主要损失项,分别占能值总损失的77.7%、8.8%、5.5%和2.5%。3)能值可持续性评估指标表明,三峡工程系统可持续性波动上升,可持续性指数(IESI)的变化趋势与三峡工程以及长江流域水旱实际情况一致,即径流总量偏丰(枯)的年份IESI值相对较高(低)。因此,在实现水电工程效益最大化的同时,降低系统社会-经济-生态损失是促进长江流域水电开发与生态环境协调发展的关键途径。研究结果为在水电工程尺度上理解人-水系统之间的复杂关系以及重大水电项目可持续性评估提供理论指导和科学依据。The sustainable development of hydropower megaproject(HM)is a crucial component of sustainable water resources management within the river basin.Hence,quantitatively appraising the multiple losses caused by construction and operation on HM sustainability is a critical and complex task.This study proposed an emergy⁃based sustainability evaluation model incorporating the social⁃economic⁃ecological losses(ESM⁃SEEL),integrating the SEEL during the construction and operation of the HM system into the emergy calculation account.The Three Gorges Project(TGP)was selected as a case study,and the comprehensive evaluation and comparative analysis of the temporal evolution and sustainability characteristics of the TGP system from 1993 to 2022 was carried out.The results showed that:1)The inflow runoff chemical potential emergy(2.77×10^(24)sej)and the emergy losses(1.48×10^(24) sej)are the primary input sections of the TGP system,accounting for 52.1%and 27.9%of the total emergy inputs,respectively.The flood control function of the TGP has generated significant socio⁃economic benefits(1.27×10^(24)sej),accounting for 35.2%of the total emergy output.2)The resettlement compensation,water pollution during operation,fish biodiversity loss,and sediment deposition are the main losses of the TGP,accounting for 77.7%,8.8%,5.5%,and 2.5%of the emergy losses,respectively.3)The emergy⁃based sustainability assessment indicators showed that the sustainability level of the TGP is increasing,and the improved emergy sustainability index(IESI)is consistent with the actual situation of the TGP and the drought⁃flood years in the Yangtze River basin.IESI values are higher(lower)in years characterized by abundant(insufficient)river runoff.Therefore,along with maximizing the benefits of the HM system,reducing the HM system′s losses is a critical approach to coordinate the hydropower development and ecological environment in the Yangtze River basin.This study helps to understand the complex relationship between people and water and

关 键 词：能值 重大水电工程 水资源 可持续管理 损失 三峡工程 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]