“双碳”目标下京津冀地区碳足迹变化及其影响因素  

Study on carbon footprint changes and influencing factors in Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebei region under the“dual⁃carbon”goal

作　　者：颜建军 邓楠 陈彬[3] 张熙文 YAN Jianjun;DENG Nan;CHEN Bin;ZHANG Xiwen(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China;School of Economics&Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院,长沙410205 [2]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌330031 [3]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第3期1275-1288,共14页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(22BJY108)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标背景下,定量评估与分析碳足迹的变化对碳排放“双控”具有重要意义。以京津冀地区为研究对象,基于2005-2021年土地利用数据、植被净初级生产力(NPP)数据以及碳排放数据对碳足迹进行测度,并分析其变化趋势及影响因素。研究发现:(1)研究期内京津冀地区碳排放的多年平均值为0.11 Pg C/a,平均增速为3.35%,且整体呈现出显著增长的趋势;NPP的多年平均值为0.35 Pg C/a,平均增速为0.25%,整体呈现出上下波动的态势;(2)研究期内京津冀地区的碳足迹和碳赤字总体表现出明显上升趋势,年均增长率分别为3.28%和1.27%,同时碳足迹的变动呈现“东北-西南”的空间分布格局,且存在明显的区域差异性,碳足迹压力指数表现出多极化趋势;(3)城镇化率是影响京津冀地区碳足迹变化的核心驱动因素,且其变动也受多因子共同作用,尤其是城镇化率与能源效率交互作用对碳足迹的影响最为显著。Under the background of“dual-carbon”target,quantitative assessment and analysis of carbon footprint changes are of great significance for“dual-control”of carbon emissions.The paper taking the Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebei urban agglomeration as an example,we measure the carbon footprint based on the land use data,the net primary productivity(NPP)of vegetation and the carbon emission data from 2005 to 2021,and analyse the trend of its change and the factors affecting it.It is found that:(1)The multi-year average of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the study period was 0.11 Pg C/a,with an average growth rate of 3.35 per cent and an overall trend of significant growth;the multi⁃year average of NPP was 0.35 Pg C/a,with an average growth rate of 0.25 per cent,and an overall up-and-down trend.;(2)During the study period,the carbon footprint and carbon deficit in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed a clear upward trend,with annual average growth rates of 3.28%and 1.27%,respectively,while the changes in the carbon footprint showed a spatial distribution pattern of‘Northeast-Southwest’,and there were obvious regional differences,and the carbon footprint pressure index showed a multi⁃polarisation trend.;(3)The urbanisation rate is the core driver of carbon footprint change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and its change is also affected by multiple factors,especially the interaction between urbanisation rate and energy efficiency has the most significant effect on carbon footprint.

关 键 词：碳足迹 碳排放 土地利用 净初级生产力 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]