珠三角城市群净碳排放与经济发展脱钩效应及其驱动力  

Decoupling effect and driving factors of net carbon emissions and economic development in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration

作　　者：王永阳 蔡宴朋 张盼 WANG Yongyang;CAI Yanpeng;ZHANG Pan(School of Ecology,Environment and Resources,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院,广州510006

出　　处：《生态学报》2025年第3期1303-1314,共12页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U20A20117)。

摘　　要：经济增长伴随着碳排放的不断增加,加剧了全球变暖和气候变化的严重程度。分析净碳排放量时空演变特征和鉴别其与经济发展之间的脱钩效应及影响因素对促进区域发展低碳化绿色可持续战略有着重要的实践意义。以珠三角城市群为例,对市级尺度的碳排放量,碳汇能力的时空演变特征进行分析,并用生态承载指数表征其净碳排放程度。同时采用Tapio脱钩模型评价该区域的净碳排放和经济效应的脱钩指数进行探讨,结合迪氏指数分解法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)识别和分析净碳排放的脱钩指数的影响因素。结果表明:(1)珠三角地区生产视角碳排放总量处于先快速增长后缓慢增长的趋势。碳排放总量由2000年的1.75×10^(8)t增长到2020年的4.87×10^(8)t,增长率为178.29%。(2)2000-2020年,珠三角地区碳吸收量由1.84×10^(8)t增长到2.06×10^(8)t,增长率为11.9%。林地和耕地是城市吸收二氧化碳的主要贡献者,其碳吸收量占总的碳吸收量的97%以上。(3)珠三角地区碳生态承载指数空间差异明显,呈现中间低两边高的趋势,地区周边的肇庆、惠州和江门生态承载指数高,与之相反,佛山和东莞的生态承载指数低。(4)碳排放强度因素、能源消耗因素、效率因素和人口因素对净碳排放量和经济发展的脱钩效应有着显著的作用。提高生态服务和增加绿地管理有助于增强碳汇能力,进而促进碳排放与经济增长的脱钩。因此,基于这些发现,研究建议珠三角地区应在未来的发展中重点加强碳汇能力的提升。同时,调整产业结构和能源结构,逐步减少对高碳排放行业的依赖,推动经济发展与碳排放的脱钩,促进区域内低碳、绿色、协同的可持续发展。这对于该地区应对全球气候变化以及实现碳中和目标具有重要的战略意义。Economic growth is accompanied by the continuous increase in carbon emissions,exacerbates the severity of global warming and climate change.Analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of net carbon emissions and identifying their decoupling effects from economic development,along with the influencing factors,is of great practical significance for promoting regional development strategies towards low⁃carbon,green,and sustainable practices.Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration as an example,this study analyzes the carbon emissions at the municipal level and the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon sink capacity,representing the extent of net carbon emissions using the Ecological Carrying Capacity Index.Simultaneously,the Tapio decoupling model is employed to assess the decoupling index between net carbon emissions and economic effects,supplemented by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)to identify and analyze the influencing factors of the decoupling index for net carbon emissions.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the total carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta region exhibited a trend of rapid growth followed by a slower increase,with the emissions increasing from 1.75×10^(8) tons in 2000 to 4.87×10^(8) tons in 2020,representing a growth rate of 178.29%.(2)During the same period,the carbon absorption capacity in the Pearl River Delta region increased from 1.84×10^(8) tons to 2.06×10^(8) tons,with forests and cultivated land being the main contributors,accounting for over 97%of the total carbon absorption.(3)The carbon ecological carrying capacity index in the Pearl River Delta region exhibits significant spatial differences,showing a trend of being lower in the central areas and higher on the periphery.The peripheral areas,such as Zhaoqing,Huizhou,and Jiangmen,have a high ecological carrying capacity index.In contrast,cities like Foshan and Dongguan display a lower ecological carrying capacity index.(4)Factors such as carbon emission intensity,energy consumption,efficiency,and popu

关 键 词：净碳排放量 脱钩效应 脱钩指数 LMDI 珠三角城市群 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]