消费者预购估值不确定风险下零售商预售模式的选择及决策  

Choice and Decision of Retailer’s Pre-sale Model at the Risk ofUncertainty in Consumer Pre-purchase Valuation

作　　者：史保莉 徐琪[1] 孙中苗 SHI Baoli;XU Qi;SUN Zhongmiao(Glorious Sun School of Business and Management,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051,China)

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200051

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第10期73-79,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BGL014);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71832001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目;东华大学研究生创新基金项目(CUSF-DH-D-2021063)。

摘　　要：本文考虑风险厌恶的策略型消费者面临预购估值不确定风险情形,探讨允许全额退款的折价预售、定金膨胀和“线下体验+预售”三种预售模式的选择和优化决策问题。研究表明:零售商预售模式的选择与体验店的建设成本和缺货率相关。当消费者和零售商因退货产生的成本较高时,零售商采取折价预售,且制定相对较高的预售价格来弥补因消费者退货产生的损失;当体验店建设成本较高时,零售商应选择允许全额退款的折价预售模式或定金膨胀预售模式,特别是缺货率较高时,零售商应该选择定金膨胀预售模式;当体验店建设成本较低时,零售商应选择“线下体验+预售”的销售模式。With the development of e-commerce,pre-sale,as an effective sales strategy,has been widely used in retail industries such as new products and short-life cycle products.However,pre-sales are a double-edged sword for consumers.Although pre-sales can provide consumers with the opportunity to pre-order products,and pre-sales are usually accompanied by some preferential activities,during the pre-sale period,consumers have not yet seen the physical product or experienced the real product.Consumers are faced with the risk of uncertainty in the valuation of pre-ordered products,which will further affect consumer pre-order behavior and retailers’revenue.In order to reduce the impact of uncertainty in the valuation of pre-sale products and improve consumer satisfaction,many retailers provide full refund services for pre-sale products or provide consumers with some new pre-sale models,such as deposit inflation and the offline experience+pre-sale mode.These new pre-sale models are designed to solve consumers’valuation uncertainty,so that consumers can wait until the valuation is confirmed before completing the pre-order order,reducing consumers’pre-order risk.Therefore,how to choose an appropriate pre-sale model and determine the optimal pre-sale price and order quantity is an important issue that retailers face when formulating pre-sale strategies.This paper considers the current mode of deposit inflation and offline experience+pre-sale adopted by retailers in online pre-sales,and the situation where retailers provide returns for pre-ordered products at the risk of uncertain valuation of consumers’pre-orders.Aiming at the retailer’s pre-sale period and current sale period,this paper discusses the choice of three pre-sale models for retailers when consumer valuation is uncertain.The first is a discounted pre-sale that provides a full refund service;the other two models are for consumers to complete the pre-order after the valuation is confirmed:deposit inflation and the“offline experience+pre-sale”model.And we

关 键 词：折价预售 定金膨胀 “线下体验+预售” 风险厌恶 策略型消费者 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]