气候变化情景下北极和亚北极海域鲱类和鳕类适宜栖息地的时空变化  

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Suitable Habitats of Clupeidae and Gadidae in Arctic and Sub-Arctic Waters Under Climate Change

作　　者：程梦娇 马舒扬[1] 罗燕萍 田永军[1] Cheng Mengjiao;Ma Shuyang;Luo Yanping;Tian Yongjun(Fisheries College,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期34-44,共11页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：自然资源部“南极重点海域对气候变化的响应和影响”专项(IRASCC 01-02-05C);国家自然科学基金项目(42376100)资助。

摘　　要：为了解气候变化情景下北极和亚北极海域鲱类和鳕类适宜栖息地的时空变化,并比较不同海域间鲱类和鳕类适宜栖息地变化的差异,本研究通过构建物种分布模型对北极和亚北极海域的北鳕(Boreogadus saida)、北极鳕(Arctogadus glacialis)、大西洋鳕(Gadus morhua)、大西洋鲱(Clupea harengus)、狭鳕(Gadus chalcogrammus)和太平洋鲱(Clupea pallasii)这6个典型鱼种在当前和未来两种不同的气候变化情景下的适宜栖息地进行了预测。研究显示:集成模型真实技巧统计值(True skill statistics,TSS)和受试者操作特征(Receiver operating characteristic,ROC)的曲线下面积(Area under the curve,AUC)值均高于0.80,有较好的预测性能。影响各鱼种分布的主要环境变量是不同的,海洋表面温度是影响几乎所有研究鱼种分布的重要环境变量。未来,所研究鱼种的适宜栖息地都会向高纬度移动,其中大西洋鳕适宜栖息地的范围变化最大。相比于SSP2-4.5情景,SSP5-8.5情景的北极海域北鳕和北极鳕的适宜栖息地会有所收缩;在未来两种环境变化情境下目前主要分布在北极大西洋一侧的大西洋鳕和大西洋鲱将会进一步进入巴伦支海海域,而目前主要分布在北极太平洋一侧的狭鳕和太平洋鲱并不会大规模地穿过白令海峡到达楚科奇海。本研究预测了北极和亚北极的东西两侧海域(大西洋和太平洋)鲱类和鳕类在气候变化情景下的潜在栖息地,研究结果可为认知北极和亚北极海域鲱类和鳕类对于气候变化的响应提供参考。In order to understand the spatial and temporal changes in suitable habitats of Clupeidae and Gadidae in Arctic and sub-Arctic waters under climate change,and compare the difference between the suitable habitats changes of Clupeidae and Gadidae in different waters,we constructed the species distribution models of 6 typical fish species inhabiting Arctic and sub-Arctic waters in this study,which included polar cod(Boreogadus saida),Arctic cod(Arctogadus glacialis),Atlantic cod(Gadus morhua),Atlantic herring(Clupea harengus),Alaska pollock(Gadus chalcogrammus)and Pacific herring(Clupea pallasii),to project their suitable habitats in current and under two different climate change scenarios in future(2010—2099).The research showed that(1)true skill statistics(TSS)and the area under the curve(AUC)of receiver operating characteristic(ROC)values were all higher than 0.80,which indicated a good prediction performance;and(2)the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of all studied fish species were different,and sea surface temperature was an important environmental variable affecting the distribution of almost all studied fish species.In the future,the suitable habitats of the studied fish species may move to higher latitudes,and the range of suitable habitats for Atlantic cod may vary the most.The suitable habitats of polar cod and Arctic cod in Arctic sea area will shrink in the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared with the SSP2-4.5 scenario.In the future,the Atlantic cod and Atlantic herring mainly distributed in Arctic Atlantic side will further enter the Barents Sea while Alaska pollock and Pacific herring mainly distributed in Arctic Pacific side will not cross Bering Strait to Chukchi Sea in a large scale.In this study,we predicted the potential habitats of Clupeidae and Gadidae in the east and west sides of Arctic and sub-Arctic waters(Atlantic and Pacific)under climate change,which is important for understanding the response of Clupeidae and Gadidae to climate change in Arctic and sub-Arctic waters.

关 键 词：北极 物种分布模型 气候变化 适宜栖息地 鲱科 鳕科 

分 类 号：S931.1[农业科学—渔业资源]