长三角城市群新型城镇化与房地产业耦合协调发展及驱动因素  

COUPLING COORDINATION DEVELOPMENT OF NEW URBANIZATION AND REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA URBAN AGGLOMERATION AND ITS DRIVING FACTORS

作　　者：江雨燕[1,2] 刘杰 蒋春迪 甘如美江 王付宇 JIANG Yu-yan;LIU Jie;JIANG Chun-di;GAN Rumeijiang;WANG Fu-yu(School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Maanshan 243032,China;Key Laboratory of Multidisciplinary Management and Control of Complex Systems,Maanshan 243032,China;School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Maanshan 243032,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032 [2]复杂系统多学科管理与控制安徽普通高校重点实验室,安徽马鞍山243032 [3]安徽工业大学电气与信息工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《南阳理工学院学报》2024年第6期1-12,共12页Journal of Nanyang Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71872002);复杂系统多学科管理与控制安徽省教育厅重点实验室开放课题(CS2022-ZD02 CS2023-ZD02)。

摘　　要：以长三角城市群为研究案例,运用熵值法对新型城镇化与房地产业发展水平进行综合评价,并引入耦合协调模型与地理加权回归模型系统探讨2005—2022年长三角城市群的新型城镇化与房地产业时空耦合协调演变格局及其驱动机制。结果表明:研究期间长三角城市群新型城镇化与房地产业发展水平呈稳步上升的态势,空间上均呈现“东高西低”的分布格局。两者耦合协调度总体上有所提升,随着时间演化推移耦合协调等级提升幅度呈东中部大于西部的态势,发展程度东南部大于西北部。耦合协调等级短期内难以实现跨越式发展,引入空间关联因素后,发现邻域背景对耦合协调等级的转移发挥了重要作用,且经济实力、政府调控、消费水平和对外开放水平是影响二者耦合协调度变化的重要驱动因素,均表现出明显的空间异质性。Taking the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as a case study,this research employs the entropy method to comprehensively evaluate the levels of new urbanization and real estate development.By introducing a coupling coordination model and a geographically weighted regression model,it systematically explores the spatiotemporal coupling coordination patterns and driving mechanisms between new urbanization and real estate from 2005 to 2022.The results show that during the study period,the levels of new urbanization and real estate development in the Yangtze River Delta steadily increased,with a spatial distribution characterized by“higher in the east and lower in the west.”The coupling coordination degree between the two has generally improved,with the eastern and central regions showing greater improvement in coordination levels over time compared to the western regions.The development levels in the southeastern areas are higher than those in the northwestern areas.However,achieving a leap in coupling coordination levels remains challenging in the short term.After incorporating spatial association factors,it was found that the neighborhood context plays a significant role in the transition of coupling coordination levels.Economic strength,government regulation,consumption levels,and openness to the outside world are key driving factors affecting the changes in coupling coordination,all exhibiting significant spatial heterogeneity.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 房地产业 耦合协调 马尔可夫链 驱动因素 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]