Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Basin under Environmental Change  

作　　者：Peng Yang Fei Xu Jun Xia Jiang Li Libo Zhou Cai Fu 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100091,China [2]School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China [3]Wuhan C-Geo Clouds Science and Tech Co.,Ltd,Wuhan 430073,China [4]Information Center of Department of Natural Resources of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430071,China [5]School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China

出　　处：《Journal of Earth Science》2025年第1期184-196,共13页地球科学学刊(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the Supported by Joint Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering and Tsinghua-Ningxia Yinchuan Joint Institute of Internet of Waters on Digital Water Governance(No.sklhse-2022-Iow04);Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research(No.IWHR-SKL-202217)。

摘　　要：Climate change and economic development impact the population expansion and water shortage in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(MYRB),leading directly to drought aggravation-expansion and impacting agricultural production in the MYRB.Therefore,this study quantitatively evaluated agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB based on the variable fuzzy evaluation model(VFEM).The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The arable land in the MYRB gradually decreased between 2005 and 2020,whereas the forest cover decreased and then increased;(2)precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors affecting the agricultural drought vulnerability(e.g.,weights of 0.24 and 0.21),whereas arable land density and gross domestic product(GDP)per capita played less significant roles;and(3)the agricultural drought vulnerability in the MYRB during 2005-2020 was mainly at level 3 and below,with higher drought vulnerability in the western and northern regions,which had a higher drought risk potential.

关 键 词：MYRB agricultural drought vulnerability variable fuzzy evaluation quantitative evaluation agricultural production 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]