基于CatBoost和LightGBM模型的肺炎患者住院费用分析  

Hospitalization expense analysis of pneumonia patients using the CatBoost and LightGBM models

作　　者：游晓平 邹志武[1] 杨晨 彭超 张琰[1] YOU Xiaoping;ZOU Zhiwu;YANG Chen;PENG Chao;ZHANG Yan(Zhujiang Hospital,Southern Medical University,Guangzhou 510280,China)

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学珠江医院,广东广州510280

出　　处：《现代医院》2025年第2期248-251,共4页Modern Hospitals

摘　　要：目的利用CatBoost和LightGBM模型对肺炎患者住院费用进行预测并探讨其影响因素,为合理控制医疗费用、减轻患者家庭及社会经济负担提供科学依据。方法收集某三甲医院2021年11月1日—2023年1月31日1407例肺炎住院患者病案首页信息,运用CatBoost和LightGBM模型进行肺炎患者的住院费用预测及影响因素分析。结果基于全变量的CatBoost模型比基于全变量的LightGBM模型的拟合效果更好,R方值达到0.859,MAPE值为0.352。基于全变量的CatBoost模型预测性能高于基于全变量LightGBM模型,R^(2)值为0.820,MAPE值为0.363。住院时间是影响肺炎患者住院费用的首要因素。结论CatBoost比LightGBM模型在肺炎患者住院费用预测研究中表现更具优势,具有更高的准确性。通过对住院费用的精准预测,可为医院运营管理者提供决策参考。在保证医疗质量的前提下,合理缩短患者住院时间,可有效地控制住院费用的增长。Objective To predict the hospitalization expense of pneumonia patients using the CatBoost and LightGBM models and explore associated influencing factors,providing a scientific basis for reasonable control of medical expenses and alleviating the financial burden on society and patients’families.Methods Data from 1407 inpatients with pneumonia admitted to a tertiary hospital between November 1,2021 and January 31,2023 were collected from the hospital information system.The CatBoost and LightGBM models were employed to predict the hospitalization expenses of pneumonia patients and analyze the influencing factors.Results The full-variable CatBoost model fitted better than the full-variable LightGBM model,with the R-square value of 0.859 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)of 0.352.The full-variable CatBoost model predicted better than the full-variable LightGBM model,with the R-square value of 0.820 and MAPE of 0.363.Notably,the average length of stay was the most important factor affecting the hospitalization expenses of pneumonia patients.Conclusion Compared to the LightGBM model,the CatBoost model indicated more advantages and higher accuracy in predicting hospitalization expenses for pneumonia patients.These accurate predictions of hospitalization expenses can provide decision-making references for hospital administrators.Therefore,on the premise of ensuring medical quality,reasonably reducing the length of hospitalization can effectively control the increase in hospitalization expenses.

关 键 词：CatBoost LightGBM 肺炎 住院费用 影响因素 

分 类 号：R197.32[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]