Rivers increasingly warmer:Prediction of changes in the thermal regime of rivers in Poland  

作　　者：Mariusz PTAK Teerachai AMNUAYLOJAROEN Mariusz SOJKA 

机构地区：[1]Department of Hydrology and Water Management,Adam Mickiewicz University,Krygowskiego 10,61-680,Poznań,Poland [2]School of Energy and Environment,University of Phayao,Phayao,56000,Thailand [3]Atmospheric Pollution and Climate Research Unit,School of Energy and Environment,University of Phayao,Phayao,56000,Thailand [4]Department of Land Improvement,Environmental Development and Spatial Management,Poznań,University of Life Sciences,Piątkowska 94E,60-649,Poznań,Poland

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2025年第1期139-172,共34页地理学报(英文版)

摘　　要：Emphasis on future environmental changes grows due to climate change,with simulations predicting rising river temperatures globally.For Poland,which has a long history of thermal studies of rivers,such an approach has not been implemented to date.This study used 9 Global Climate Models and tested three machine-learning techniques to predict river temperature changes.Random Forest performed best,with R^(2)=0.88 and lowest error(RMSE:2.25,MAE:1.72).The range of future water temperature changes by the end of the 21st century was based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.It was determined that by the end of the 21st century,the average temperature will increase by 2.1°C(SSP2-4.5)and 3.7°C(SSP5-8.5).A more detailed analysis,divided by two major basins Vistula and Odra,covered about 90%of Poland's territory.The average temperature increase,according to scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the Odra basin rivers,is 1.6°C and 3.2°C and for the Vistula basin rivers 2.3°C and 3.8°C,respectively.The Vistula basin's higher warming is due to less groundwater input and continental climate influence.These findings provide a crucial basis for water management to mitigate warming effects in Poland.

关 键 词：global warming forecasting water temperature Poland 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P343.1