组态视角下家庭生育支持政策工具对生育率的促进机制研究——基于OECD38个成员国家的实证比较  

Research on the Promotion Mechanism of Family Fertility Support Policy Tools on Fertility Rate from the Perspective of Configuration:An Empirical Comparison Based on 38 OECD Countries

作　　者：谢和均[1] 罗凤千 XIE Hejun;LUO Fengqian

机构地区：[1]云南大学政府管理学院

出　　处：《人口与社会》2025年第1期68-84,共17页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“生育假促进生育的效果评估及政策优化研究”(24BRK024);云南大学第十五届研究生科研创新项目(KC-23236121)。

摘　　要：生育支持政策是提振生育水平、促进人口均衡发展的重要工具。结合政策工具理论,以OECD38个国家2000—2022年相关数据为研究对象,借助模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)探析供给型、环境型和需求型政策工具促进生育率提升的组态路径。研究发现,不存在导致生育率提高的单个必要条件,带薪育儿假、家庭税收减免和女性就业率对OECD国家总和生育率提升起重要作用。根据fsQCA各类阈值设定,最终得出实现生育率提高的七条有效路径,且分别与OECD部分国家的实施效果相匹配:环境型政策工具对法国、德国及瑞士等国生育率的提升起主导作用;需求型政策工具在提升斯洛伐克、意大利及比利时等国生育率中起促进作用;而供给型政策工具则更多依赖需求型与环境型政策工具二者的组合效应。我国应从深化供给型政策改革、发挥环境型政策主导作用、加强需求型政策工具供给出发,打好三类家庭生育支持政策工具组合拳,加大家庭税收减免力度、增加家庭福利支出、适度延长带薪育儿假、保障女性就业权益、普及偏远地区儿童疫苗接种服务并健全普惠托育服务体系,最终构建完善的生育支持政策体系,促进我国人口长期均衡发展。Fertility support policies are important tools for boosting fertility levels and promoting balanced population development.Based on the theory of policy tools,this paper takes the data of 38 OECD countries from 2000 to 2022 as the research object,and uses the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to explore the configuration path of supply-oriented,environmental and demand-based policy tools to promote fertility rate.It is found that there is no single necessary condition that leads to an increase in fertility rates,while paid parental leave,family tax breaks,and female employment rates play important roles in the total fertility rate of OECD countries.Based on various threshold settings of fsQCA,seven effective paths to achieve fertility rate increase are ultimately identified,which match the implementation effects of some OECD countries.Environmental policy tools play a leading role in increasing fertility rates in countries such as France,Germany,and Switzerland;Demand-based policy tools play a promoting role in increasing fertility rates in countries such as Slovakia,Italy,and Belgium;Supply-oriented policy tools,on the other hand,rely more on the combined effects of demand and environmental tools.Therefore,China should deepen the reform of supply-oriented policies,give play to the leading role of environmental policies,and strengthen the supply of demand-based policy tools.What s more,we should play a good combination of three types of family fertility support policy tools,increase family tax relief efforts,increase the investment in family welfare spending,moderately extend paid parental leave,protect women s employment rights,popularize children s vaccination services in remote areas,and improve the inclusive childcare service system.Finally,we can build a sound fertility support policy system,and promote the long-term balanced development of China s population.

关 键 词：组态视角 生育支持政策 fsQCA方法 生育率 带薪育儿假 家庭税收 女性就业权益 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学] C924.2C924.1