核安全壳在钢衬里锈蚀情况下的概率安全分析  

Probabilistic safety analysis of nuclear containment under steel liner corrosion conditions

作　　者：李鑫波 贡金鑫[1] LI Xinbo;GONG Jinxin(State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《哈尔滨工程大学学报》2024年第12期2281-2289,共9页Journal of Harbin Engineering University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YBF1900903);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51978125);国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(U22B20125)。

摘　　要：为研究钢衬里锈蚀对核安全壳密封性的影响,本文通过数值模拟分析了安全壳在钢衬里锈蚀情况下的密封失效压力。探究安全壳的内压易损性并阐明了统计不确定性对易损性分析结果的影响,评估了不同钢衬里锈蚀程度下安全壳的安全裕度和总失效概率。结果表明:安全壳密封失效压力随钢衬里锈蚀率的增加而逐渐降低;安全壳内压易损性曲线随钢衬里锈蚀率的增加而逐渐向坐标轴左侧移动;本文所用分析样本得到的易损性结果受统计不确定性的影响比较小。本文安全壳在钢衬里局部锈蚀率为30%的情况下,可以满足安全裕度不低于2.5和总失效概率不超过0.1的性能要求,可为安全壳在钢衬里锈蚀情况下的概率安全评估提供参考。The sealing failure pressure under corrosion conditions is analyzed through numerical simulations to investigate the effect of steel liner corrosion on the leak tightness of nuclear containment.The fragility of the containment subjected to internal pressure is examined,with the effect of statistical uncertainty on fragility results clarified.Safety margins and total failure probabilities for varying degrees of steel liner corrosion.Results indicate that the sealing failure pressure decreases with the increase in corrosion rate.Moreover,as the corrosion rate of the steel liner increases,the fragility curve of the containment subjected to internal pressure shifts to the left on the coordinate axis.With the analyzed sample used in this paper,the effect of statistical uncertainty on the fragility results is relatively small.In general,the containment investigated satisfies the performance requirements of a safety margin of at least 2.5 and a total failure probability of not more than 0.1,even with a local corrosion rate of up to 30%.These findings provide valuable insights for the probabilistic safety assessment of containment structures under steel liner corrosion conditions.

关 键 词：安全壳 钢衬里 锈蚀 密封性 统计不确定性 易损性分析 安全裕度 概率安全评估 

分 类 号：TM623[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TG174.3[金属学及工艺—金属表面处理]