增值税税率下调与产业链间接税税负差异——基于产业链投入产出表的分析  

VAT Rate Reduction and Difference between Indirect Tax Burden of Industrial Chain:Analysis Based on the Input-Output Table of Industrial Chain

作　　者：何代欣[1] 刘诗阳 尹利伟 DAIXIN HE;SHIYANG LIU;LIWEI YIN(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Peking University;University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院财政研究室 [2]北京大学经济学院 [3]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2025年第1期91-107,共17页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目《积极财政政策松弛地方政府借款约束的理论机制、趋势预测及管控策略》(项目编号:71973149);中国社会科学院重大创新项目《深化财税体制改革的重大问题研究》的研究资助。

摘　　要：增值税减税对企业的间接税税负影响巨大,但少有研究从产业链视角探究增值税减税对上下游企业的非对称影响。本文利用2018年我国增值税税率下调的政策冲击,采用双重差分模型研究增值税税率下调与制造业产业链的间接税税负变动的关系。本文运用产业链投入产出表测算了制造业产业链的间接税负,发现在2018年增值税税率下调之前,上游制造业企业的间接税税负就比下游制造业企业高9%。基准回归结果表明,增值税税率下调具有非对称的减负效应,下游制造业企业的间接税税负比上游企业降低得更多(-0.36%),这导致产业链两端的税负差距继续扩大。进一步分析发现,行业集中度高的下游企业间接税税负减轻更多,居民消费率高的下游企业间接税负下降更明显。本文结论表明制定精准有效的减税政策需要考虑产业链税负差异,对上下游企业实施差异化策略。VAT reduction has a huge impact on the indirect tax burden of enterprises.However,few studies have explored the asymmetric impact of VAT reduction on upstream and downstream enterprises from the industrial chain perspective.This paper utilizes the policy shock of China's VAT rate cut in 2018 and uses a double difference model to study the relationship between the VAT rate cut and the change in the indirect tax burden of the manufacturing industry chain.This paper measures the indirect tax burden of the manufacturing industry chain using the industry chain input-output table,and finds that the indirect tax burden of the upstream manufacturing enterprises is 9%higher than that of the downstream manufacturing enterprises even before the VAT rate cut in 2018.The benchmark regression results show that the VAT rate cut has an asymmetric burden reduction effect,and the indirect tax burden of downstream manufacturing enterprises is reduced more than that of upstream enterprises(-0.36%),which leads to a continued widening of the tax burden gap between the two ends of the industry chain.Further analysis reveals that downstream enterprises with high industry concentration reduce their indirect tax burden more,and downstream enterprises with high residential consumption rate reduce their indirect tax burden more significantly.The conclusion of this paper suggests that the formulation of accurate and effective tax reduction policies needs to take into account the differences in the tax burden of the industrial chain and implement differentiated strategies for upstream and downstream enterprises.

关 键 词：间接税税负 增值税税率 制造业产业链 投入产出表 

分 类 号：F81[经济管理—财政学]