秋汛期汉江上游致洪暴雨过程特征及天气概念模型分析  

Characteristics of Flood-Causing Rainstorm Process in the Upper Reaches of the Hanjiang River During the Autumn Flood Season and Analysis of Weather Conceptual Model

作　　者：王孝慈 田刚 孟英杰 王海燕 王继竹 周耘逸 徐卫立 祁海霞[3,4] WANG Xiaoci;TIAN Gang;MENG Yingjie;WANG Haiyan;WANG Jizhu;ZHOU Yunyi;XU Weili;QI Haixia(Hubei Meteorological Observatory,Wuhan 430074;Meteorological Center of the Yangtze River Basin,Wuhan 430074;National Rainstorm Research Center/CMA Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA,Wuhan 430205;Sanxia National Climate Observatory,Hubei,Yichang 443099;Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch&Comunication Center,Hubei,Yichang 443000)

机构地区：[1]湖北省气象台,武汉430074 [2]长江流域气象中心,武汉430074 [3]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所全国暴雨研究中心/中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室/暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205 [4]三峡国家气候观象台,湖北宜昌443099 [5]三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《气象》2025年第2期207-220,共14页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金项目(2023AFD094、2023AFD099);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J018、CXFZ2024P043);中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题(24SWQXZ029);中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(2423020002)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用NCAR/NCEP再分析资料及常规气象、水文观测资料,以秋汛期汉江上游15例编号洪水为研究对象,研究其洪水峰型特征及对应天气系统的演变规律,构建了致洪暴雨天气概念模型。结果表明:秋汛期汉江上游编号洪水单峰型过程最多,洪水过程线具有多样性;双峰型洪量大、洪峰高、涨水和退水较为迅速,形态多为尖瘦型;多峰型洪量最大,历时最长,峰值高低不等。单峰型洪水过程持续时间短,逐日面累计降水量起伏较大,成峰迅速,均为尖瘦型;双峰型过程持续时间一般不少于11 d,暴雨过程间隔较短,主峰和副峰差值不大,峰值在20000 m^(3)·s^(-1)以上;多峰型降水过程历时最长,阴雨天气可持续20 d以上,主峰峰值低于双峰型。从大尺度环流形势来看,中高纬地区:双峰型一般会出现3次较为明显的形势调整,环流经向度较大;多峰型环流形势调整较少,贝加尔湖南侧多为小槽小脊活动;单峰型无明显形势调整。中低纬地区:多峰型西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)西进发展最为强盛,无台风或热带气旋活动;双峰型副高东西摆动频繁,常有热带气旋参与;单峰型多伴有大陆高压与海洋高压合并现象,少有台风或热带气旋活动。秋汛期汉江上游致洪暴雨天气概念模型主要有5类:高空槽-急流强迫型(A-Ⅰ)、高空槽-低涡切变型(A-Ⅲ)、副高外围-急流强迫型(B-Ⅰ)、副高外围-偏南气流弱强迫型(B-Ⅱ)和副高内部-低涡切变型(C-Ⅲ),其中,双峰型洪水多以A型为主、多峰型多以B型为主、单峰型A型和B型均有出现,且C型仅为单峰型所特有。此外,地面Ⅰ型和Ⅱ型也常与A-Ⅰ、A-Ⅲ、B-Ⅰ等组合出现,当3层天气系统配置较好时,致洪概率将会大幅度增加。Based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data and conventional meteorological and hydrological observation data,15 cases of numbered floods in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River in the autumn flood season are taken as the research object to study the characteristics of flood peak patterns and the evolution laws of corresponding weather systems,and a weather conceptual model of flood-causing rainstorm is constructed.The results shown that during the autumn flood season,single peak flood processes occur most frequently in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River,and the flood hydrograph has diversity.The bimodal pattern has a large flood volume,high peak,and rapid rise and fall of water level,with a mostly pointed and thin shape.The multi-peak flood has the largest volume and longest duration,with varying peak heights.The duration of the unimodal flood process is short,and the daily accumulated precipitation fluctuates greatly,with rapid peak formation,and all of them are sharp and thin.The duration of the bimodal process is generally no less than 11 d,the interval between rainstorm processes is short,the difference between the main peak and the secondary peak is small,and the peak value is more than 20000 m^(3)·s^(-1).The duration of the multi-peak precipitation process is the longest,and in the continuous cloudy and rainy weather can last for more than 20 d,but the main peak value is lower than that of the bimodal pattern.From the perspective of large-scale circulation patterns,in mid to high latitudes,there are generally three more obvious pattern adjustments in the bimodal pattern,with a larger meridional degree of circulation.There are fewer adjustments to the multi-peak circulation pattern,and the southern side of Lake Baikal is mostly characterized by small trough and ridge activities.There is no significant adjustment in the unimodal pattern.In the middle and low latitudes,the western Pacific subtropical high with multiple peaks moves most strongly westward,without typhoon or tropical cyclone activities.The b

关 键 词：汉江上游 编号洪水 洪水峰型 致洪暴雨过程 致洪天气概念模型 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458