1950—2023年四川广元烤烟干旱时空特征及影响因素  

Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of flue-cured tobacco drought in Guangyuan,Sichuan from 1950 to 2023

作　　者：汪福松 白银萍 俞世康 何佶弦 李俊举 刘奇东 王鹏 顾会战 樊利 李富程[4] 王彬[4] 杨刚 WANG Fu-song;BAI Yin-ping;YU Shi-kang;HE Ji-xian;LI Jun-ju;LIU Qi-dong;WANC Peng;CU Hui-han;FAN Li;LI Fucheng;WANG Bin;YANG Gang(Guangyuan Branch of Sichuan Tobacco Company,Guangyuan,Sichuan 628000,China;School of Life Science and Engineering,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang,Sichuan 62010,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering Shaanxi University of Science and Technology,Xian,Shaanxi 710021,China;School of Environment and Resource,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang,Sichuan 621010,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省烟草公司广元市公司,四川广元628000 [2]西南科技大学生命科学与工程学院/农学院,四川绵阳621010 [3]陕西科技大学环境科学与工程学院,西安710021 [4]西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2024年第11期2513-2524,共12页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国烟草总公司四川省公司科技项目(SCYC202305,SCYC202106);中国烟草总公司陕西省公司科技项目(KJ-2023-04)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究烤烟生育期内干旱的时空特征及影响因子,以期为烟区烤烟灌溉制度的制定和干旱预测预报提供科学依据。【方法】基于四川省广元市1950-2023年0.1°分辨率逐日栅格气象数据集,计算不同时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数(Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index,SPEI),结合极点对称模态分解(Extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition,ESMD)、M-K检验和皮尔逊相关系数等方法研究干旱时空特征及影响因素。【结果】(1)1950-2023年,广元市烤烟整个生育期及成熟期干旱指数显著下降;大田全生育期存在2.9和8.0年的年际干旱周期,以及16.0年的年代际干旱周期;湿润年有一定旱涝急转特点。(2)2014-2023广元市干旱多发生于烤烟旺长期和成熟期,且以轻中旱为主。(3)SPEI的平均重心主要分布于利州区,呈东南-西北方向分布;2014-2023年SPEI空间分布以旺苍、利州、昭化、苍溪4区县为中心。(4)降水是影响广元烤烟大田全生育期SPEI的主要因子,呈显著正相关且相关系数逐渐增加。【结论】广元市烟区可使用降雨数据进行烤烟生育期内干旱的监测。烤烟旺长期需及时进行灌溉,以满足烤烟的需水特性,在成熟期应及时排水防止田间积水,同时注意严重干旱的发生。根据干旱发生周期预测下一次干旱的发生,并提前在相应区域准备应对措施。【Objective】The study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought during the tobacco growing period and identify the main influencing factors to provide a scientific basis for irrigation strategies and drought forecasting.【Method】A 0.1° resolution daily grid meteorological dataset for Guangyuan city from 1950 to 2023,was used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) at different time scales.Methods such as Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition(ESMD),M-K test, and Pearson correlation coefficient were applied to analyze drought mutations and spatiotemporal characteristics.【Result】(i)From 1950 to 2023,the drought index during the entire growing period and maturation period of flue-cured tobacco in Guangyuan significantly decreased, with 2.9-year and 8-year interannual cycles, and a 16-year interdecadal cycle.In wet years, abrupt transitions between drought and flood were observed.(ii)From 2014 to 2023,droughts were mainly observed during the vigorous growth and maturation periods, with moderate to severe droughts prevailing.(iii)The average center of the SPEI drought index was mainly in Lizhou district, showing a southeast-northwest distribution.From 2014 to 2023,the drought center had been observed in Wangcang, Lizhou, Zhaohua, and Cangxi districts.( iv)Precipitation was identified as the main factor affecting the SPEI drought index during the tobacco field growing period, with a significant positive correlation and increasing correlation coefficient over time.【Conclusion】In the Guangyuan region, rainfall data can be used to monitor drought during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco.Particular attention should be paid to timely irrigation during the vigorous growth period to meet the water requirements of flue-cured tobacco.During the maturation period, drainage should be carried out promptly to prevent waterlogging in the fields.Based on the drought occurrence cycle, the next drought occurrence can be predicted, and appropriate measu

关 键 词：广元市 烤烟 SPEI 干旱 时空特征 

分 类 号：S512[农业科学—作物学]