中国—非盟自贸区达成的经济效果研究  

Study on impact of the establishment of China-African Union Free Trade Area

作　　者：赵亮[1,2] 刘菁菁 陈怡容 宋文静 孙常忠 ZHAO Liang;LIU Jingjing;CHEN Yirong;SONG Wenjing;SUN Changzhong(School of Economics and Trade,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China;School of International Economics and Trade,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院经济贸易学院,江西南昌330099 [2]江西财经大学国际经贸学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《南昌工程学院学报》2024年第6期99-107,116,共10页Journal of Nanchang Institute of Technology

基　　金：研究阐释党的二十大精神江西省社科基金专项研究课题(22ZXQH35);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2021M691355);南昌市社科规划项目(GL202307);南昌工程学院省级大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(S202111319024)。

摘　　要：达成中国—非盟自贸区是升级中非双边经贸关系的重要举措。采用全球贸易分析项目(Global Trade Analysis Project,GTAP)模型从经贸和行业角度对中国—非盟自贸区达成的经济效果进行了事件模拟。中非自贸区的达成驱动中非双方贸易、经济、福利的全面提升;在贸易、经济两方面,对非盟的驱动更显著,同时自贸区开放水平与其驱动强度耦合正相关。中国化工类等3类行业贸易入超,轻纺类等6类行业的附加值提升,而非盟的矿产类、能源类行业受益更大。依次纳入中美贸易争端、TTIP、“一带一路”的冲击影响后发现:在经贸层面,中美贸易争端制约中国发展,而使非盟受益;TTIP对中非双方均整体产生外部不利影响;“一带一路”显著驱动中国发展,而对非盟经济利弊相参。在行业层面,无论何种冲击对中非各方9类行业的贸易和附加值影响均呈较强异质性。此外,各模拟结果均表现为经济体间“和则两利、斗则俱伤,‘渔翁’得利”的博弈特点。The establishment of China-African Union Free Trade Area is an important measure to smooth China’s external circulation.The thesis,using GTAP model,simulates the effect of CAUFTA from the perspective of economy and trade and industry.The results show that:CAUFTA will drive the overall improvement of trade,economy and welfare of China and AU.In terms of trade and economy,it will drive AU more significantly.Meanwhile,the level of opening up of CAUFTA is positively correlated with its driven strength.The trade of China’s three industries,such as chemical industry,will be in surplus,and the added value of six industries,such as light and textile industry,will be enhanced,while the mineral industry and energy industry of AU will benefit more.After including the shock of Sino-US trade war,TTIP and“the Belt and Road”in order,it is found that trade war restricts China’s development,but AU benefits from it.On the whole,TTIP causes external diseconomy to both China and AU.While“the Belt and Road”initiative has given a boost to China’s development,its impact on AU is both positive and negative.At the industry level,the influence of any shock on the trade and added value of the nine industries in China and AU shows strong heterogeneity.In addition,the simulation results in all scenarios reflect the characteristics of the game between economies:“harmony benefits both,competition hurts both,and the’fisherman’gains”.

关 键 词：中国—非盟自贸区 GTAP 中美贸易战 TTIP “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]