珠三角城市群经济-人口集聚度影响因素研究  

Study on the Influencing Factors of Economic-Demographic Agglomeration Degree in the Pearl River Delta Region

作　　者：吕浩 LV Hao

机构地区：[1]广东第二师范学院数学学院 [2]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《新经济》2025年第2期120-134,共15页New Economy

摘　　要：珠三角城市群作为中国经济的重要增长极,吸引大量人口迁入并形成显著集聚现象。本文基于珠三角9个城市的数据,采用空间自相关分析和主成分分析法,探讨经济—人口集聚度的影响因素。研究发现:第一,珠三角城市群的人口流入率在空间上未表现出显著的空间自相关规律。第二,经济—人口集聚度的主要影响因素为人均地区生产总值和地方一般公共预算收入,两者共同解释了集聚度的大部分变化。第三,珠三角城市的经济—人口集聚度综合排名显示出广州、深圳核心城市集聚度较高,而东莞、中山等地趋向集聚平衡,反映出核心城市的强大吸引力,同时也体现了其他城市的稳步发展和集聚平衡的趋势。本研究有助于揭示珠三角区域经济与人口分布机制,为促进区域协调发展提供实证支持。As a crucial economic growth pole in China,the Pearl River Delta Region has attracted a large number of migrants and formed a remarkable agglomeration phenomenon.Based on the data of 9 cities in the Pearl River Delta,this paper employs spatial autocorrelation analysis and principal component analysis to explore the influencing factors of the economic-population agglomeration degree.The research findings are as follows:Firstly,the population inflow rate does not exhibit a significant spatial auto-correlation pattern.Secondly,the main influencing factors of the economic-population agglomeration degree are the per capital regional gross domestic product and the local general public budget revenue,and the two factors jointly explain most of the changes in the agglomeration degree.Thirdly,the comprehensive ranking of the economic-population agglomeration degree of the Pearl River Delta cities shows that core cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen have a relatively high agglomeration degree,while places like Dongguan and Zhongshan tend to achieve agglomeration balance.This reflects the strong attractiveness of the core cities and also demonstrates the steady development of the surrounding cities and the trend of agglomeration balance.The research in this paper helps to reveal the regional economic and population distribution mechanism in the Pearl River Delta and provides empirical support for promoting regional coordinated development.

关 键 词：珠三角城市群 经济—人口集聚度 区域协调发展 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]