绿色低碳技术创新视角下影响城市经济增长与碳排放脱钩的因素和路径研究——以广东省21个地市为例  

Research on Factors and Pathways Influencing the Decoupling of Urban Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Green Low-Carbon Technology Innovation:A Case Study of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province

作　　者：朱健齐 黄希颖 谭晓雯 张潇 Zhu Jianqi;Huang Xiying;Tan Xiaowen;Zhang Xiao(School of Economics and Trade,Foshan University,Foshan 528000,China;School of Business,Macao University of Science and Technology,Macao 999078,China)

机构地区：[1]佛山大学经济贸易学院,广东佛山528000 [2]澳门科技大学商学院,中国澳门999078

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第24期191-201,共11页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“基于财政支出结构与税收激励政策的广东‘双碳’目标实现路径研究”(GD23CYJ03);广东省科技创新战略专项项目“大学生科技创新培育”(pdjh2024a391);广东省科技计划项目“数字经济驱动政企合作(PPP)高质量发展机制研究及效应检验”(2024A0505050035)。

摘　　要：为实现“双碳”目标,从根本上解决经济增长引发的高碳排放问题,广东省已将推动经济增长与碳排放的脱钩(以下简称“脱钩”)作为一项关键措施;而有关广东省碳排放脱钩状态的波动情况尚待进一步分析。以2007—2021年广东省21个地市作为研究对象,采用Tapio模型和模糊集定性比较分析方法判断碳减排主要的影响因素,识别各城市碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系演变及其主要驱动路径。结果显示:广东省各城市的脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主,强脱钩和增长负脱钩的现象分布较为零星分散,整体而言碳排放与经济增长脱钩趋势是积极的,而珠三角地区9个城市间的脱钩状态在时间和空间上表现出一定波动性;能源结构的低碳化创新是降低碳排放强度的核心动力,真脱钩城市在经济发展水平上差异较大,伪脱钩城市主要为传统制造业立足的城市;真脱钩城市主要包括以工业技术绿色化主导的科技创新驱动型和以农业技术绿色化为主导的产业协同优化型城市。针对此,需要深化科技创新、优化产业结构、强化要素供给,助力城市实现内源性的真脱钩,同时加大对农业企业绿色发展的扶持力度,推动其低碳转型升级。Achieving the"dual carbon"goals of reaching peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 requires balancing economic growth with carbon emission reductions,particularly in regions like Guangdong province,a critical hub for China's sustainable development efforts.Guangdong has prioritized decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions as a key strategy to address high emissions driven by rapid economic expansion.This study explores the decoupling dynamics across 21 cities in Guangdong from 2007 to 2021 by employing the Tapio decoupling model and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA).It investigates the evolution of decoupling states,identifies key influencing factors,and uncovers the pathways driving carbon reduction through the lens of green and low-carbon technological innovation.The results reveal that weak decoupling dominates among Guangdong's cities,while strong decoupling and growth-negative decoupling are observed sporadically.Despite a generally positive trend toward decoupling,cities in the Pearl River Delta region display pronounced temporal and spatial fluctuations in decoupling states.Low-carbon innovation in energy structure emerges as the pivotal driver of reduced carbon intensity,supported by policies promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency.Cities achieving"true decoupling"differ significantly in economic development;some leverage industrial technological innovation,while others focus on green agricultural development and inter-sectoral synergy.On the other hand,"false decoupling"is more prevalent in cities reliant on traditional manufacturing industries,characterized by inefficient energy use and limited adoption of green technologies.The findings highlight the need for differentiated policy interventions tailored to varying regional conditions.For cities in advanced stages of economic development,efforts should focus on refining energy efficiency,deepening technological innovation,and promoting industrial upgrading.In less-developed cities,strategies should emphasiz

关 键 词：碳排放 绿色低碳 绿色技术创新 低碳转型 区域发展 广东省 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F224[经济管理—国民经济] G301[文化科学]