高分辨率数值模式在2023年贵州汛期降水预报的性能评估  

Evaluation of Three High-resolution Operational Weather Forecast Models for Precipitation in Guizhou Province During the Rainy Season 2023

作　　者：何牧 杨富燕 唐维尧 张坤 HE Mu;YANG Fuyan;TANG Weiyao;ZHANG Kun(Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Meteorological Science,Guiyang 550081,China;State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry,Institute of Geochemistry,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guiyang 550081,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省山地气象科学研究所,贵州贵阳550081 [2]中国科学院地球化学研究所,环境地球化学国家重点实验室,贵州贵阳550081

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2024年第6期28-35,共8页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-117)。

摘　　要：【目的】贵州地形复杂,降水预报难度大,针对高分辨率区域模式预报产品的综合检验评估是提高模式预报性能的关键环节之一。【方法】基于2023年汛期(4月15日—10月15日)贵州省1560个加密观测站的逐小时降水数据,从TS评分、降水频率、强度、降水峰值时段等方面,对CMA-MESO、CMA-GD、CMA-SH等3个高分辨率区域模式在贵州的预报能力进行详细评估。【结果】3个模式对区域平均日降水量、降水频率的预报均偏多;3个模式基本能预报出平均日降水量的大值中心,但位置相对观测偏东偏北。CMA-GD中到暴雨TS评分高;CMA-MESO各降水量级下TS评分均为最低。基于60个强降水日的逐6 h累计降水预报评估表明各模式降水量和频率预报偏差出现时段有所不同。CMA-MESO降水量负偏差多集中在下午时段,CMA-GD和CMA-SH上午正偏差最为严重。观测中降水频率高值多出现在贵州东北部(白天)和西部(夜间),CMA-GD对强降水日降水频率时空演变预报较为准确,其余模式偏差较大。模式对强降水日贵州东北部夜间降水峰值出现时间预报较为准确,而在贵州东南部3个模式预报峰值时间基本为夜间,与观测中白天峰值不同。【结论】综合来看,CMA-GD对贵州汛期平均日降水量的TS评分和降水日内演变特征预报最优。此外,基于降水量、频次、强度、日变化等特征的综合评估方法有助于正确认识模式在复杂地形区的降水预报偏差。Due to the complex terrain,precipitation in Guizhou is difficult to forecast accurately.A comprehensive evaluation of the forecast products of high-resolution regional models is one of the keys to improve the model forecast performance.Based on the hourly precipitation data from 1560 stations in Guizhou Province during the rainy season(from 15 April to 15 October)in 2023,the forecast abilities of three high-resolution regional models(CMA-MESO,CMA-GD,CMA-SH)are evaluated in detail in terms of TS score,precipitation frequency,intensity and peak period of precipitation in Guizhou.The evaluation results of the models on the daily precipitation forecasts show that the regional mean daily precipitation and frequency in the rainy season are overestimated by all three models.The large-value center of the precipitation can be predicted by all models basically,but the location of the precipitation center is by east and north relative to the observation.The CMA-GD shows a higher TS in the forecasts of moderate rain to rainstorm,while CMA-MESO is the worst for all precipitation magnitudes in TS.The deviation time of precipitation and frequency forecast is different for each model based on the forecast evaluation of 6 h accumulated precipitation in the 60 selected heavy precipitation days.The negative precipitation deviations of CMA-MESO forecast are mostly seen in the afternoon,while the forecasts by CMA-GD and CMA-SH exhibit the largest positive deviations in the morning.Higher precipitation frequency is mostly observed in the northeastern part(daytime)and western part(nighttime)of Guizhou.CMA-GD performs better in forecasting the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation frequency,but the other two model forecasts have larger deviations.In terms of the precipitation peak time on heavy precipitation days,the models can forecast more accurately for northeastern Guizhou,while the forecast time of peak precipitation by the three models in the southeast of Guizhou is at night rather than in the daytime from observation.To

关 键 词：高分辨率模式 汛期 检验评估 降水 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]