红河州冰雹时空分布特征及冰雹灾害风险区划  

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Hailstorm and the Region Division of Hail Disaster Risk in Honghe Prefecture

作　　者：刘佳 郑春敏 蒋欣芸 赵盛彬 方杰 LIU Jia;ZHENG Chunmin;JIANG Xinyun;ZHAO Shengbin;FANG Jie(The Hengduan Mountain Area(Low Latitude Plateau)Disastrous Weather Research Center,Kunming 650034,China;Honghe Hani-Yi Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Office of Yunnan Province,Mengzi 661199,China)

机构地区：[1]横断山区(低纬高原)灾害性天气研究中心,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省红河哈尼族彝族自治州气象局,云南蒙自661199

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2024年第6期73-78,85,共7页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

摘　　要：【目的】在全球气候变暖背景下,进一步分析红河州冰雹时空分布特征及冰雹灾害风险区划。【方法】利用2014—2022年红河州精细到乡镇的冰雹记录,使用ArcGIS提取分析、密度分析、Pearson相关分析等方法,统计分析红河州降雹时空变化特征和冰雹孕灾环境特征,并在此基础上进行红河州冰雹灾害风险区划。【结果】(1)2014—2022年红河州降雹日在10~30 d之间,多年平均为18.4 d·a^(-1),最近9 a降雹日和乡镇降雹站次均呈上升趋势。降雹出现在7—8月、3—5月2个时段,分别占全年的45%、31%;多发于14—18时(64%)。(2)全州13县市多年平均降雹日在0.6~6.0 d之间,有3个高发降雹区,分别位于泸西、弥勒一带,石屏、建水一带,蒙自、屏边一带。(3)降雹多发于1000~2000 m的山区、丘陵地区(频率73.4%)、坡度<5°的丘陵、坝子和小盆地(频率62.3%)和阳坡地带(频率57.3%)。(4)红河州冰雹灾害风险等级整体呈西南低、东北高的特点,有2个雹灾高风险区:泸西大部、弥勒北部,石屏北部地区。【结论】红河州多年平均冰雹日为18.4 d·a^(-1),呈增加趋势,多发于7—8月、3—5月的14—18时。红河州冰雹灾害风险等级整体呈现出西南低、东北高的特点。Based on the detailed hail records at township sites of Honghe Prefecture from 2014 to 2022,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of hailstorms in Honghe Prefecture and the environment features conducive to hail disaster formation are analyzed by the methods of ArcGis technology,hail shooting density analysis,Pearson correlation and natural breakpoint method.On this basis,the region division of hail disaster risks in Honghe Prefecture is also conducted.The results show that:(1)From 2014 to 2022,the annual hail days in Honghe Prefecture vary from 10 to 30 days,with an average of 18.4 days per year.Both the number of hail days and the frequency of hail events show an increasing trend over the past nine years.Hailstorm tends to occur mainly from July to August and from March to May,accounting for 45%and 31%of the whole year,respectively.From 14∶00 to 18∶00 is the period to see most hail events,taking up 64%.(2)The average annual hail days across the 13 counties(cities)of the prefecture are 0.6 to 6.0 days,with three high-frequency areas located around Luxi-Mile,Shiping-Jianshui,and Mengzi-Pingbian,respectively.(3)Hailstorm often occur in mountainous and hilly areas at the elevation from 1,000 m to 2,000 m above sea level(the frequency being 73.4%),in the hilly and small inter-mountain basins with slope<5°(the frequency being 62.3%),and in the sunny slope areas(the frequency being 57.3%).(4)The overall risk level of hail disaster in Honghe Prefecture is low in the southwest but high in the northeast.There are two high-risk hail disaster areas:one located in the majority of Luxi County and the northern part of Mile County,and the other in the northern part of Shiping County.

关 键 词：冰雹灾害 时空分布 孕灾环境 GIS技术 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]