不同时间尺度冶木河流域降水径流演变及贡献率分析  

Analysis of Rainfall Runoff Evolution and Contribution Rate in Different Time Scales in Yemu River Basin

作　　者：陈吉平 崔亮 张文睿 孙栋元 王启优 王亦可 王漪茹 CHEN Ji-ping;CUI Liang;ZHANG Wen-rui;SUN Dong-yuan;WANG Qi-you;WANG Yi-ke;WANG Yi-ru(Gansu Hydrology Station,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省水文站,兰州730070 [2]甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《价值工程》2025年第5期11-14,共4页Value Engineering

基　　金：甘肃省高等学校青年博士基金项目(2022QB-070);甘肃农业大学科技创新基金—青年导师扶持基金项目(GAU-QDFC-2021-16);甘肃省水利科学实验研究与技术推广项目(23GSLK084,23GSLK087)。

摘　　要：探究流域内水文要素变化规律及影响程度,对促进流域水资源合理开发利用具有重要作用。基于冶木河流域1981-2022年降水、径流水文气象资料,采用Mann-Kendal(lM-K)检验法、重标极差(R/S)分析法和累积量斜率变化率比较法对流域内降水、径流趋势性、突变性和持续性等演变特征和不同尺度降水变化对径流变化的贡献率进行了研究。结果表明:1980s为降水与径流的一致突变点;冶木河流域降水量和径流量的主要集中在汛期4-10月;R/S分析结果表明降水量和径流量未来减少趋势具有一定的持续性;降水量和径流演变过程中均存在7~12 a和28~32 a时间尺度的周期变化规律;贡献率分析结果表明,春季和冬季降水变化是径流深减少的主要原因。该研究为流域水资源合理配置和管理提供科学依据。Exploring the variation law and influence degree of hydrological factors in the basin plays an important role in promoting the rational development and utilization of water resources in the basin.Based on the hydrological and meteorological data of precipitation and runoff in Yemu River Basin from 1981 to 2022,the Mann-Kendall(M-K)test method,rescaled range(R/S)analysis method and cumulative slope change rate comparison method were used to study the evolution characteristics of precipitation and runoff trends,mutability and persistence in the basin and the contribution rate of precipitation changes at different scales to runoff changes.The results show that the 1980s is the consistent mutation point of precipitation and runoff;the precipitation and runoff in the Yemu River Basin are mainly concentrated in the flood season from April to October;the results of R/S analysis show that the future decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff has a certain continuity.There were periodic variations of 7-12 a and 28-32 a time scales in the evolution of precipitation and runoff.The results of contribution rate analysis show that the change of precipitation in spring and winter is the main reason for the decrease of runoff depth.This study provides a scientific basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources in the basin.

关 键 词：降雨变化 径流演变 贡献率分析 冶木河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]