防范房地产市场下行风险的宏观政策选择研究  

Macroeconomic Control Policy Choices for Preventing Downward Risks in the Real Estate Market

作　　者：孟宪春[1] MENG Xianchun

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2025年第1期127-141,共15页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金“房价上涨、家庭债务集中与财富不平等:理论机制、实证检验与对策研究”(项目编号:72203072);中央高校哲学社会科学研究创新团队项目“坚持共同富裕方向的中国经济高质量发展现代化道路研究”(项目编号:2022CXTD25)。

摘　　要：既有研究主要聚焦于如何抑制房地产泡沫风险,相对忽视对房地产市场下行风险防范问题的探讨。本文通过构建家庭、企业和地方政府同时面临抵押约束以及商业银行面临资本充足约束的动态随机一般均衡模型,刻画了住房需求收缩引发房地产市场下行风险的形成机制,并在此基础上模拟了货币、财政和宏观审慎政策的调控效果。研究发现,住房需求收缩带来房价下降,一方面,导致借款型家庭净资产损失更多、对持有住房的资产回报预期转弱,降低了住房抵押贷款违约成本,进而加剧家庭部门债务违约风险;另一方面,导致储蓄型家庭预算约束、企业和地方政府抵押约束收紧,储蓄型家庭因此减少消费,企业和地方政府则因此缩减投资,最终造成总需求和全要素生产率下降。政策模拟结果显示:额外盯住房价的货币政策与减税的财政政策均在促进实体部门恢复需求方面效果更佳,而逆周期调整抵押贷款价值比的宏观审慎政策则只在防范家庭债务违约风险方面效果明显。The existing studies mainly focus on how to curb the risk of housing bubble,and relatively ignore the discussion on preventing downward risks in the real estate market.This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general model with borrowing constraints for households,enterprises,commercial banks,and local governments,to simulate the regulatory effects of monetary,fiscal,and macroprudential policies on the downward risks of the real estate market.We find that the contraction of housing demand leads to a decrease in housing prices.On the one hand,the decline in housing prices will lead to greater net asset losses and weaker expectations of asset returns for borrowing-households holding housing,reducing the cost of defaulting on housing mortgage loans and exacerbating the default risk of household debt.On the other hand,the decline in housing prices will also lead to tightened budget constraints for saving-households,enterprises and local governments,causing saving-households to reduce consumption and enterprises and local governments to reduce investment,resulting in a negative impact on total demand and total factor productivity.The policy simulation results show that the monetary policy that additionally targets housing prices and the fiscal policy that reduces taxes are both more effective in promoting the recovery of demand in the real sector,while the macro prudential policy of countercyclical adjustment of mortgage to value ratio is only effective in preventing the risk of household debt default.

关 键 词：住房需求收缩 债务风险 经济波动 宏观调控 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济] F832