韧性视角下我国原油进口海运网络恢复策略优化研究  

Optimization of Recovery Strategy for China's Crude Oil Import Maritime Network from a Resilience Perspective

作　　者：苏婉 吕靖 张聆晔 SU Wan;LV Jing;ZHANG Lingye(School of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学,交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2025年第1期36-43,共8页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72104041)。

摘　　要：鉴于中国对进口原油高度依赖,以及原油进口海运网络中断风险日益加剧,优化网络恢复策略并提升其韧性已成为亟待解决的关键问题。本文以实际运输数据为基础构建我国原油进口海运网络模型,基于韧性曲线和网络效率指标提出网络韧性评估方法,并以韧性最大化为目标建立恢复策略优化模型,应用于模拟的5种中断情景。结果表明,优化模型生成的最优恢复策略在所有中断情景下均能显著提高网络的恢复速度,且与传统恢复策略相比最高可减少79.14%的网络韧性损失;优化模型可识别出不同情景下对网络有决定性影响的关键节点,优先恢复可提升网络整体的恢复效率;当绕路成本约束放宽时,网络的韧性损失随之下降,节点的最优恢复次序也会发生改变。研究结论可为我国原油进口海运网络的应急恢复和韧性提升提供决策依据。China's high dependence on imported crude oil,coupled with the escalating risks of disruptions in the maritime transportation network,necessitates urgent attention to optimizing recovery strategies and enhancing resilience.Based on actual transportation data,a model of China's crude oil import maritime network has been developed.A resilience assessment method using resilience curves and network efficiency indicators,has been proposed.An optimization model for recovery strategies is established with the objective of maximizing resilience and then applied to five simulated disruption scenarios.The results reveal that the optimal recovery strategy significantly accelerates network recovery across all scenarios,reducing resilience loss by up to 79.14%compared to traditional strategies.The model identifies crucial nodes that significantly impact the network under various scenarios,emphasizing the importance of prioritized recovery to enhance overall efficiency.Furthermore,relaxing detour cost constraints decreases resilience loss and alters the optimal node recovery sequence.The findings provide a foundational basis for decision-making in emergency recovery and resilience enhancement of China's crude oil import maritime network.

关 键 词：水路运输 恢复策略优化 韧性评估 原油海运网络 中断风险 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]